Tearsheet

Investment Highlights


0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.3%, FCF Yield is 6.2%
Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87%
Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
  
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27%
  
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 50%
  
0 Attractive yield
Total YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.3%, FCF Yield is 6.2%
1 Strong revenue growth
Rev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19%
2 Valuation becoming less expensive
P/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27%
3 Low stock price volatility
Vol 12M is 50%
4 Weak multi-year price returns
2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87%
5 Weak revenue growth
Rev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3%

Market Valuation & Key Metrics

AA Stock


Return vs. Risk


Price Returns Compared

 202020212022202320242025Total [1]
Returns
AA Return7%159%-23%-24%12%-3%70%
Peers Return6%46%-7%29%8%39%177%
S&P 500 Return16%27%-19%24%23%13%103%

Monthly Win Rates [3]
AA Win Rate67%75%42%42%50%56% 
Peers Win Rate58%55%50%50%48%69% 
S&P 500 Win Rate58%75%42%67%75%67% 

Max Drawdowns [4]
AA Max Drawdown-75%-22%-43%-48%-25%-40% 
Peers Max Drawdown-66%-15%-38%-21%-25%-28% 
S&P 500 Max Drawdown-31%-1%-25%-1%-2%-15% 


[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ATI, CENX, AA, CSTM, KALU. See AA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/15/2025 (YTD)

Downturns Compared

Unique KeyEventAAS&P 500
2022 Inflation Shock2022 Inflation Shock  
2022 Inflation Shock% Loss% Loss-75.4%-25.4%
2022 Inflation Shock% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven306.1%34.1%
2022 Inflation ShockTime to BreakevenTime to BreakevenNot Fully Recovered days464 days
2020 Covid Pandemic2020 Covid Pandemic  
2020 Covid Pandemic% Loss% Loss-74.5%-33.9%
2020 Covid Pandemic% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven292.5%51.3%
2020 Covid PandemicTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven256 days148 days
2018 Correction2018 Correction  
2018 Correction% Loss% Loss-72.2%-19.8%
2018 Correction% Gain to Breakeven% Gain to Breakeven260.0%24.7%
2018 CorrectionTime to BreakevenTime to Breakeven860 days120 days


How Low Can It Go?

Alcoa's stock fell -75.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/24/2022. A -75.4% loss requires a 306.1% gain to breakeven.

Preserve Wealth

Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth over time.

Asset Allocation

Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.

Interactive Breakdown

Alcoa Interactive Breakdown Analysis

Better Bets than Alcoa (AA)

Latest Trefis Analyses

Trade Ideas

Select past ideas related to AA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.

Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
AXTA_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025AXTAAxalta Coating SystemsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.5%-3.5%-7.8%
GPK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025GPKGraphic PackagingDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-11.7%-11.7%-11.7%
FCX_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025FCXFreeport-McMoRanMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
6.7%6.7%-0.9%
KWR_7312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield07312025KWRQuaker HoughtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.8%15.8%0.0%
TGLS_6302025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%06302025TGLSTecnoglassQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-18.1%-18.1%-19.6%
AA_9302022_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG09302022AAAlcoaDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
27.0%-12.8%-22.4%
Unique KeyDateTickerCompanyCategoryTrade Strategy6M Fwd Rtn12M Fwd Rtn12M Max DD
AXTA_9302025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield09302025AXTAAxalta Coating SystemsDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
-3.5%-3.5%-7.8%
GPK_9302025_Dip_Buyer_ValueBuy09302025GPKGraphic PackagingDip BuyDB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin
-11.7%-11.7%-11.7%
FCX_9302025_Monopoly_xInd_xCD_Getting_Cheaper09302025FCXFreeport-McMoRanMonopolyMY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S Decline
Large cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple
6.7%6.7%-0.9%
KWR_7312025_Dip_Buyer_FCFYield07312025KWRQuaker HoughtonDip BuyDB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High Margin
Buying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin
15.8%15.8%0.0%
TGLS_6302025_Quality_Momentum_RoomToRun_10%06302025TGLSTecnoglassQualityQ | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and Upside
Buying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run
-18.1%-18.1%-19.6%
AA_9302022_Dip_Buyer_High_FCF_Yield_ExInd_DE_RevG09302022AAAlcoaDip BuyDB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow Yield
Buying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap
27.0%-12.8%-22.4%

Recent Active Movers

Recent Active Movers

More From Trefis

Peer Comparisons for Alcoa

Financials

AAATICENXCSTMKALUMedian
NameAlcoa ATI Century .Constell.Kaiser A. 
Mkt Price36.4683.3231.9115.9180.0036.46
Mkt Cap9.411.83.02.21.33.0
Rev LTM12,7774,4642,4327,4793,1144,464
Op Inc LTM1,556591180254122254
FCF LTM582187-22-153-38-22
FCF 3Y Avg-3582-46-26-40-35
CFO LTM1,12141459243150243
CFO 3Y Avg50928140351127281

Growth & Margins

AAATICENXCSTMKALUMedian
NameAlcoa ATI Century .Constell.Kaiser A. 
Rev Chg LTM19.4%6.8%15.4%-0.3%4.6%6.8%
Rev Chg 3Y Avg-0.3%15.9%-4.1%-2.9%-3.3%-2.9%
Rev Chg Q3.9%9.7%12.0%8.9%6.4%8.9%
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM0.9%2.3%2.8%2.3%1.6%2.3%
Op Mgn LTM12.2%13.2%7.4%3.4%3.9%7.4%
Op Mgn 3Y Avg2.9%11.8%1.9%4.0%3.2%3.2%
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM-0.2%0.5%0.4%-0.6%-0.2%-0.2%
CFO/Rev LTM8.8%9.3%2.4%3.2%4.8%4.8%
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg4.2%6.6%1.8%4.5%4.2%4.2%
FCF/Rev LTM4.6%4.2%-0.9%-2.0%-1.2%-0.9%
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg-0.6%1.9%-2.0%-0.4%-1.2%-0.6%

Valuation

AAATICENXCSTMKALUMedian
NameAlcoa ATI Century .Constell.Kaiser A. 
Mkt Cap9.411.83.02.21.33.0
P/S0.72.61.20.30.40.7
P/EBIT6.118.420.012.69.912.6
P/E9.429.625.370.420.225.3
P/CFO8.428.650.59.28.69.2
Total Yield11.7%3.4%4.0%1.4%5.9%4.0%
Dividend Yield1.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%1.0%0.0%
FCF Yield 3Y Avg-1.0%0.8%-5.2%-1.8%-4.1%-1.8%
D/E0.30.20.21.00.90.3
Net D/E0.10.10.20.90.80.2

Returns

AAATICENXCSTMKALUMedian
NameAlcoa ATI Century .Constell.Kaiser A. 
1M Rtn8.5%7.6%22.6%4.9%3.4%7.6%
3M Rtn28.1%-7.2%63.4%17.6%-8.6%17.6%
6M Rtn46.4%82.2%102.1%86.5%50.1%82.2%
12M Rtn-10.6%33.2%83.5%9.4%16.7%16.7%
3Y Rtn-1.4%208.6%454.0%45.0%38.6%45.0%
1M Excs Rtn7.9%3.9%21.5%5.2%2.3%5.2%
3M Excs Rtn18.5%-15.9%52.9%10.2%-16.4%10.2%
6M Excs Rtn25.1%52.8%79.2%66.0%26.0%52.8%
12M Excs Rtn-24.7%16.4%69.6%-5.4%2.0%2.0%
3Y Excs Rtn-87.3%110.8%332.5%-42.4%-54.5%-42.4%

Financials

Segment Financials

Revenue by Segment

$ Mil20242023202220212020
Aluminum6,9408,7628,7846,3776,820
Alumina5,2615,4324,9273,8954,811
Other13-8112283
Elimination of intersegment sales-1,663-1,735-1,570-2,221-2,557
Bauxite   1,2131,276
Total10,55112,45112,1529,28610,433


Assets by Segment
$ Mil20242023202220212020
Alumina6,153  4,3334,303
Aluminum5,854  6,2146,588
Cash and cash equivalents944  1,607879
Corporate fixed assets, net392  453519
Other371  182291
Deferred income taxes333  655642
Corporate goodwill142  141145
Pension assets125    
Elimination of intersegment receivables-159  -193-170
Bauxite   1,4681,434
Total14,155  14,86014,631


Price Behavior

Short Interest

Short Interest: As Of Date9302025
Short Interest: Shares Quantity9,153,261
Short Interest: % Change Since 9152025-12.3%
Average Daily Volume6,463,685
Days-to-Cover Short Interest1.42
Basic Shares Quantity259,000,000
Short % of Basic Shares3.5%

Earnings Returns History

Expand for More

 Forward Returns
Earnings Date1D Returns5D Returns21D Returns
7/16/20252.9%12.4%10.1%
4/16/2025-7.0%5.5%17.3%
1/22/2025-3.7%-9.4%-11.3%
10/16/2024-4.1%-0.5%-1.8%
7/10/20241.9%-4.3%-20.4%
4/17/2024-0.2%1.5%12.9%
1/17/2024-1.6%9.5%0.8%
10/18/2023-8.6%-10.1%-1.5%
...
SUMMARY STATS   
# Positive81515
# Negative1699
Median Positive3.2%6.0%17.3%
Median Negative-5.0%-10.1%-11.3%
Max Positive15.2%14.8%31.0%
Max Negative-16.9%-19.5%-28.5%

SEC Filings

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Report DateFiling DateFiling
6302025731202510-Q 6/30/2025
3312025501202510-Q 3/31/2025
12312024220202510-K 12/31/2024
93020241031202410-Q 9/30/2024
6302024802202410-Q 6/30/2024
3312024502202410-Q 3/31/2024
12312023221202410-K 12/31/2023
93020231026202310-Q 9/30/2023
6302023727202310-Q 6/30/2023
3312023504202310-Q 3/31/2023
12312022223202310-K 12/31/2022
93020221027202210-Q 9/30/2022
6302022725202210-Q 6/30/2022
3312022505202210-Q 3/31/2022
12312021224202210-K 12/31/2021
93020211028202110-Q 9/30/2021

Insider Activity

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 OwnerTitleFiling DateActionPriceSharesTransacted
Value
Value of
Held Shares
Form
0Bacchi RenatoEVP & Chief Commercial Officer10242024Sell42.2923,8671,009,4312,424,165Form