Alcoa (AA)
Market Price (9/13/2026): $48.26 | Market Cap: $12.7 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Aluminum
Alcoa (AA)
Market Price (9/13/2026): $48.26Market Cap: $12.7 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Aluminum
Investment Highlights Why It Matters Detailed financial logic regarding cash flow yields vs trend-riding momentum.
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.7% Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32% Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. | Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -6.2% | Key risksAA key risks include [1] acute operational vulnerability to high energy costs and supply interruptions, Show more. |
| Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 11%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 6.7% |
| Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -32% |
| Megatrend and thematic driversMegatrends include Circular Economy & Recycling, Electric Vehicles & Autonomous Driving, and Sustainable Infrastructure. Themes include Advanced Recycling Technologies, Show more. |
| Weak multi-year price returns3Y Excs Rtn is -6.2% |
| Key risksAA key risks include [1] acute operational vulnerability to high energy costs and supply interruptions, Show more. |
Qualitative Assessment
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Alcoa (AA) stock has lost about 40% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Alcoa missed analyst expectations for adjusted earnings per share (EPS) and revenue in fiscal Q2 2026, coupled with a significant reduction in full-year alumina production guidance. The company reported adjusted EPS of $2.12, falling short of analyst estimates ranging from $2.24 to $2.35. Quarterly revenue of $3.97 billion also slightly missed expectations. This miss was exacerbated by Alcoa lowering its full-year 2026 alumina production guidance to between 9.5 and 9.6 million metric tons, a reduction of 0.2 to 0.3 million metric tons from its prior projection. This cut was primarily due to operational disruptions at the Pinjarra refinery in Western Australia, including an oxalate outbreak and gas supply interruptions associated with Cyclone Narelle.
2. A substantial correction in aluminum commodity prices during fiscal Q2 2026 directly impacted Alcoa's profitability. LME aluminum prices, after peaking at $3,651 in June 2026, corrected to approximately $3,175 per metric ton by mid-July 2026. The price further declined from $3,666.00 in May 2026 to $3,439.00 in June 2026, and then to $3,161.00 in July 2026. This "major price correction" pulled primary aluminum prices to their lowest levels of the first half of 2026. Alcoa's management explicitly attributed the Q2 2026 EPS shortfall in part to this sharp decline in aluminum prices at the close of June, with the impact amplified by a 15-day pricing lag.
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Alcoa (AA) stock has lost about 40% since 5/31/2026 because of the following key factors:
1. Alcoa missed analyst expectations for adjusted earnings per share (EPS) and revenue in fiscal Q2 2026, coupled with a significant reduction in full-year alumina production guidance. The company reported adjusted EPS of $2.12, falling short of analyst estimates ranging from $2.24 to $2.35. Quarterly revenue of $3.97 billion also slightly missed expectations. This miss was exacerbated by Alcoa lowering its full-year 2026 alumina production guidance to between 9.5 and 9.6 million metric tons, a reduction of 0.2 to 0.3 million metric tons from its prior projection. This cut was primarily due to operational disruptions at the Pinjarra refinery in Western Australia, including an oxalate outbreak and gas supply interruptions associated with Cyclone Narelle.
2. A substantial correction in aluminum commodity prices during fiscal Q2 2026 directly impacted Alcoa's profitability. LME aluminum prices, after peaking at $3,651 in June 2026, corrected to approximately $3,175 per metric ton by mid-July 2026. The price further declined from $3,666.00 in May 2026 to $3,439.00 in June 2026, and then to $3,161.00 in July 2026. This "major price correction" pulled primary aluminum prices to their lowest levels of the first half of 2026. Alcoa's management explicitly attributed the Q2 2026 EPS shortfall in part to this sharp decline in aluminum prices at the close of June, with the impact amplified by a 15-day pricing lag.
3. The announcement of the $4.1 billion South32 acquisition introduced concerns regarding financing and potential share dilution. On June 30, 2026, Alcoa entered into a definitive agreement to acquire South32's bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets for an upfront consideration of approximately $4.1 billion in cash and stock, plus a contingent value right of up to $750 million. While strategically positioned as a long-term benefit, the deal's reliance on $3.1 billion of bridge financing commitments and the issuance of approximately 17 million new Alcoa shares created a short-term financial burden and raised dilution concerns among investors.
4. Multiple analyst downgrades and significant price target reductions reflected a deteriorating market sentiment towards Alcoa. Following the fiscal Q2 2026 earnings report and updated guidance, several prominent investment firms revised their outlooks for Alcoa. Morgan Stanley downgraded the stock from "Overweight" to "Equal-Weight" and cut its price target from $79.00 to $53.00 on July 8, 2026. JPMorgan Chase & Co. reduced its target price from $55.00 to $52.00 and set a "neutral" rating on July 17, 2026. Bank of America also lowered its price objective from $57.00 to $51.00 and maintained an "underperform" rating on July 9, 2026. The consensus EPS estimates for fiscal year 2026 dropped from US$6.81 to US$5.97 per share, and the consensus price target decreased from US$72.44 to US$62.98.
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Stock Movement Drivers
Fundamental Drivers
The -37.7% change in AA stock from 5/31/2026 to 9/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -49.6% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 5312026 | 9122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 77.49 | 48.26 | -37.7% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12,655 | 13,603 | 7.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 8.2% | 9.4% | 14.9% |
| P/E Multiple | 19.8 | 10.0 | -49.6% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 264 | 264 | 0.0% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -37.7% |
Market Drivers
5/31/2026 to 9/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AA | -37.7% | |
| Market (SPY) | 1.0% | 40.8% |
| Sector (XLB) | -0.4% | 40.2% |
Fundamental Drivers
The -21.9% change in AA stock from 2/28/2026 to 9/12/2026 was primarily driven by a -27.8% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 2282026 | 9122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 61.76 | 48.26 | -21.9% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12,831 | 13,603 | 6.0% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 9.0% | 9.4% | 4.1% |
| P/E Multiple | 13.8 | 10.0 | -27.8% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 259 | 264 | -1.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | -21.9% |
Market Drivers
2/28/2026 to 9/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AA | -21.9% | |
| Market (SPY) | 11.7% | 32.7% |
| Sector (XLB) | -4.2% | 39.0% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 51.1% change in AA stock from 8/31/2025 to 9/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 21.1% change in the company's P/E Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312025 | 9122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 31.94 | 48.26 | 51.1% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 12,777 | 13,603 | 6.5% |
| Net Income Margin (%) | 7.9% | 9.4% | 19.5% |
| P/E Multiple | 8.2 | 10.0 | 21.1% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 259 | 264 | -1.9% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 51.1% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2025 to 9/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AA | 51.1% | |
| Market (SPY) | 19.5% | 38.9% |
| Sector (XLB) | 12.0% | 43.1% |
Fundamental Drivers
The 66.0% change in AA stock from 8/31/2023 to 9/12/2026 was primarily driven by a 96.7% change in the company's P/S Multiple.| (LTM values as of) | 8312023 | 9122026 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stock Price ($) | 29.08 | 48.26 | 66.0% |
| Change Contribution By: | |||
| Total Revenues ($ Mil) | 10,868 | 13,603 | 25.2% |
| P/S Multiple | 0.5 | 0.9 | 96.7% |
| Shares Outstanding (Mil) | 178 | 264 | -32.6% |
| Cumulative Contribution | 66.0% |
Market Drivers
8/31/2023 to 9/12/2026| Return | Correlation | |
|---|---|---|
| AA | 66.0% | |
| Market (SPY) | 75.7% | 48.4% |
| Sector (XLB) | 29.7% | 55.3% |
Price Returns Compared
| 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | Total [1] | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Returns | |||||||
| AA Return | 159% | -23% | -24% | 12% | 42% | -9% | 121% |
| Peers Return | 29% | -13% | 29% | 17% | 65% | 30% | 260% |
| S&P 500 Return | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 11% | 102% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
| AA Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 67% | 56% | |
| Peers Win Rate | 53% | 44% | 50% | 53% | 69% | 59% | |
| S&P 500 Win Rate | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | 44% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
| AA Max Drawdown | -29% | -64% | -58% | -37% | -43% | -49% | |
| Peers Max Drawdown | -33% | -48% | -37% | -32% | -31% | -28% | |
| S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -5% | -25% | -10% | -8% | -19% | -9% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2021
[2] Peers: CENX, KALU, RS. See AA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2026 data is for the year up to 9/11/2026 (YTD)
How Low Can It Go
| Event | AA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 183 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 162 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 544 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -44.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1193 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -67.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 204.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 241 days | 140 days |
In The Past
Alcoa's stock fell -37.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 59.8% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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| Event | AA | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 2025 US Tariff Shock | ||
| % Loss | -37.4% | -18.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 59.8% | 23.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 183 days | 79 days |
| 2024 Yen Carry Trade Unwind | ||
| % Loss | -26.1% | -7.8% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 35.2% | 8.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 52 days | 18 days |
| Summer-Fall 2023 Five Percent Yield Shock | ||
| % Loss | -34.1% | -9.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 51.7% | 10.5% |
| Time to Breakeven | 162 days | 24 days |
| 2023 SVB Regional Banking Crisis | ||
| % Loss | -33.5% | -6.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 50.5% | 7.1% |
| Time to Breakeven | 544 days | 31 days |
| 2022 Inflation Shock & Fed Tightening | ||
| % Loss | -44.0% | -24.5% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 78.5% | 32.4% |
| Time to Breakeven | 1193 days | 427 days |
| 2020 COVID-19 Crash | ||
| % Loss | -67.2% | -33.7% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 204.7% | 50.9% |
| Time to Breakeven | 241 days | 140 days |
| Q4 2018 Fed Policy Error / Growth Scare | ||
| % Loss | -41.4% | -19.2% |
| % Gain to Breakeven | 70.5% | 23.8% |
| Time to Breakeven | 960 days | 105 days |
In The Past
Alcoa's stock fell -37.4% during the 2025 US Tariff Shock. Such a loss loss requires a 59.8% gain to breakeven.
Preserve Wealth
Limiting losses and compounding gains is essential to preserving wealth.
Asset Allocation
Actively managed asset allocation strategies protect wealth. Learn more.
About Alcoa (AA)
Alcoa Corporation (AA) is a global leader in the production of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum. The company operates across a vertically integrated value chain, starting with the mining of bauxite ore. This bauxite is then processed into alumina, a key industrial chemical, which Alcoa either sells to external customers or uses internally to produce primary aluminum through its smelting and casting businesses.
Alcoa's main products include bauxite, alumina, and various forms of primary aluminum ingot. These aluminum products are essential inputs for diverse industries such as transportation, building and construction, packaging, and wire manufacturing. In addition to its core metal production, Alcoa also owns and operates hydro power plants, generating and selling electricity to the wholesale market, serving a range of customers including traders, large industrial consumers, and distribution companies.
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The ExxonMobil of aluminum.
Like Archer Daniels Midland (ADM) for the aluminum industry.
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- Bauxite: This is the raw ore mined by Alcoa, which is then processed into alumina.
- Alumina: An intermediate product derived from bauxite, sold to customers who process it into industrial chemical products or further into aluminum.
- Primary Aluminum: Offered in forms such as alloy ingot and value-add ingot, serving industries like transportation, building and construction, packaging, and wire.
- Electricity: Generated from Alcoa's owned hydropower plants and sold in the wholesale market to various consumers and companies.
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William F. Oplinger, President and Chief Executive Officer
William F. Oplinger joined Alcoa in 2000 and has served as President, Chief Executive Officer, and a director since September 2023. Prior to his current role, he was Chief Operating Officer from February to September 2023, and Chief Financial Officer for Alcoa Corporation from 2016 to February 2023, and for Alcoa Inc. from 2013 to 2016. Mr. Oplinger has extensive experience leading Alcoa's finance function, overseeing treasury, pension, tax, controllership, financial planning and analysis, audit, investor relations, and transformation. He also served as Chief Operating Officer for Alcoa Global Primary Products, where he was responsible for the daily operations of its mining, refining, smelting, casting, and energy businesses, and oversaw significant restructuring efforts and the optimization of centers of excellence. Before joining Alcoa, he held engineering and management positions at Westinghouse and Emerson Electric.
Molly S. Beerman, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Molly S. Beerman was appointed Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, effective February 1, 2023. Prior to this, she served as Vice President and Controller for Alcoa Corporation since December 2016. Ms. Beerman is a seasoned financial executive known for her expertise in technical accounting, process improvement, and technology. She held various leadership roles with Alcoa Inc. from 2001 to 2012, including Director of Global Procurement Center of Excellence and Manager of North America Financial Accounting Services. She also served as Director of Global Shared Services Strategy and Solutions. From 2012 to 2015, she was Vice President of Finance and Administration for The Pittsburgh Foundation, a non-profit organization, and returned to Alcoa in 2015 in a consulting capacity for the finance department related to the separation transaction. Earlier in her career, she held financial management positions at Carnegie Mellon University, PNC Bank, and Deloitte.
Matthew T. Reed, Executive Vice President and Chief Operations Officer
Matthew T. Reed serves as the Executive Vice President and Chief Operations Officer, responsible for the daily operations of Alcoa's global bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets. He joined Alcoa in June 2023 as Vice President Operations, Australia and President, Alcoa of Australia.
Andrew Hastings, Executive Vice President and General Counsel
Andrew Hastings is the Executive Vice President and General Counsel, overseeing Alcoa's global legal, security, compliance, and governance matters. Before joining Alcoa in September 2023, he served as Senior Vice President and General Counsel at Lundin Mining Corporation from February 2019 to August 2023.
Renato Bacchi, Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer
Renato Bacchi is the Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer, leading the company’s sales and trading, marketing, supply chain, commercial operations, procurement, and transformation initiatives. He also oversees Alcoa's global energy assets and breakthrough technology programs. He was promoted to Executive Vice President and Chief Strategy Officer effective February 1, 2022, and previously held the position of Senior Vice President of Corporate Development and Treasurer.
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The key risks to Alcoa's business include the volatility of commodity prices and energy costs, geopolitical factors and trade policies, and increasing environmental regulations.
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Commodity Price Volatility and High Energy Costs
Alcoa's profitability is highly sensitive to the volatile market prices of bauxite, alumina, and aluminum, its primary products. As an energy-intensive industry, aluminum production is also significantly impacted by fluctuations in electricity and natural gas prices, which represent a substantial portion of Alcoa's production costs. This dual exposure to both input and output price volatility makes the company vulnerable to market swings.
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Geopolitical Risks, Trade Restrictions, and Tariffs
Geopolitical issues, trade sanctions, and tariffs pose a significant risk to Alcoa's global operations. Such factors can disrupt supply chains for raw materials like bauxite and alumina, lead to increased transportation costs, and affect market access. For example, US tariffs on imported aluminum can directly increase costs for the company's Aluminum segment.
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Environmental Regulations and Compliance Costs
The aluminum industry faces mounting scrutiny regarding its environmental footprint, particularly concerning greenhouse gas emissions from its energy-intensive production processes. Alcoa is subject to evolving environmental regulations, which necessitate substantial capital expenditure for compliance and asset optimization. Adherence to stricter environmental policies, including those related to water pollution and land use from mining activities, can lead to increased operating expenses and impact profitability.
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Alcoa Corporation operates in three main segments: Bauxite, Alumina, and Aluminum. The addressable markets for these products are global.
- Bauxite: The global bauxite market size was estimated at approximately USD 16.18 billion in 2025 and is projected to reach about USD 20.45 billion by 2034. Another estimate places the global bauxite market size at USD 17.1 billion in 2025, with a projection to reach USD 21.5 billion by 2034. Asia-Pacific is the dominating region in the bauxite market.
- Alumina: The global alumina market size was estimated at over USD 40 billion in 2020 and is anticipated to grow to USD 46.53 billion by 2030. More recent estimates indicate the global alumina market size was approximately USD 46.83 billion in 2025 and is anticipated to reach around USD 70.8 billion by 2034. Smelter-grade alumina (SGA), which Alcoa produces, accounts for over 92% of global alumina demand. The Asia Pacific region is expected to lead the alumina market.
- Aluminum: The global aluminum market size was estimated at USD 178.5 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach approximately USD 315.5 billion by 2034. Other estimations include a market size of USD 199.83 billion in 2024, growing to USD 307.36 billion by 2033, and USD 190.98 billion in 2025, increasing to approximately USD 347.29 billion by 2035. The Asia Pacific region accounts for the largest share of the global aluminum market.
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Alcoa Corporation (AA) is poised for future revenue growth over the next 2-3 years, driven by several key factors:
- Increasing Global Aluminum Demand: The demand for aluminum is expected to grow significantly due to global trends in electrification, decarbonization, and digital infrastructure. Aluminum is a critical component in electric vehicles, renewable energy systems (like solar panels and wind turbines), modern power grids, and data centers. Additionally, traditional sectors such as transportation, building and construction, and packaging continue to drive demand.
- Enhanced Production Capacity and Shipments: Alcoa anticipates increased aluminum production and shipment volumes resulting from the restart of key smelters. Notably, the San Ciprián smelter in Spain is on track for a full restart by mid-2026, contributing to higher output. Increased production from other facilities, such as Alumar in Brazil and Lista in Norway, is also expected to boost overall capacity.
- Favorable Aluminum Pricing and Premiums: Positive market dynamics, including strong aluminum prices and regional premiums, are projected to contribute to revenue growth. Factors such as U.S. Section 232 tariffs and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) in Europe are expected to support higher Midwest premiums and overall aluminum pricing. Geopolitical tensions have also played a role in recent increases in global aluminum prices.
- Strategic Monetization of Non-Core Assets: Alcoa is actively pursuing a strategy to monetize its closed or curtailed industrial sites, including selling them to data center developers. The company expects to complete the first sale of these sites by June 2026, creating a new revenue stream by repurposing legacy assets for emerging digital infrastructure needs.
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Share Repurchases
- In July 2022, Alcoa announced an additional $500 million share repurchase program, with $275 million utilized in the second quarter of 2022.
- As of October 2025, approximately $500 million remained in the share repurchase plan, contingent on the availability of excess cash.
- Over the five-year period ending December 2025, Alcoa's 5-Year Share Buyback Ratio was -8.00%, indicating a net increase in outstanding shares despite repurchase authorizations.
Share Issuance
- In August 2024, Alcoa completed an all-stock acquisition of Alumina Limited, resulting in a significant issuance of Alcoa shares.
- As part of this transaction, 2,760,056,014 Alumina Limited shares were exchanged for 78,772,422 shares of Alcoa common stock on August 1, 2024.
- The company's shares outstanding increased by 20.22% in 2024 to 0.214 billion and by 22.06% in 2025 to 0.261 billion, largely due to the Alumina Limited acquisition.
Outbound Investments
- In 2024, Alcoa acquired the remaining 40% interest in Alumina Limited, consolidating 100% ownership of the Alcoa World Alumina and Chemicals (AWAC) joint venture, for an implied consideration of approximately $2.7 billion in an all-stock transaction.
- In July 2025, Alcoa sold its 25.1% ownership interest in the Ma'aden Joint Venture to the Saudi Arabian Mining Company (Ma'aden) for approximately $1.35 billion, comprising 86 million Ma'aden shares (valued at $1.2 billion) and $150 million in cash.
Capital Expenditures
- Capital expenditures for the full year 2024 were $580 million.
- For the full year 2025, Alcoa's capital expenditures were $618 million, primarily focused on operational efficiency and strategic asset management.
- Expected capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to be $750 million, with a focus on smelter restarts and modernization efforts, including approximately $60 million through 2028 for the anode baking furnace at the Massena smelter.
Peer Outperformance in Aluminum
null| Ticker | Name | Rev Growth 3Y Avg | P/E | 1Y | 3Y | 5Y | 5Y Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | Alcoa | 8.1% | 10.0x | 46.3% | 74.3% | 3.2% | — |
| CENX | Century Aluminum | 5.6% | 7.2x | 68.8% | 507.6% | 238.8% | +236pp |
| KALU | Kaiser Aluminum | 10.7% | 11.3x | 110.2% | 129.6% | 57.6% | +54pp |
| Industry | Names | 1Y med | 3Y med | 5Y med | Top 3 by 5Y |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | 7 | 73.5% | 89.4% | 288.0% | COPR 1050% · TGB 335% · HBM 333% |
| Steel | 13 | 27.6% | 50.2% | 155.9% | HCC 339% · AMR 317% · NWPX 315% |
| Silver | 6 | 106.1% | 346.8% | 149.6% | AYA 240% · HL 228% · SVM 183% |
| Gold | 34 | 28.2% | 198.7% | 148.7% | IAG 762% · CNL 485% · OGC 455% |
| Aluminum ← | 3 | 68.8% | 129.6% | 57.6% | CENX 239% · KALU 58% · AA 3% |
| Construction Materials | 7 | -20.5% | 20.2% | 44.7% | USLM 345% · CRH 85% · VMC 48% |
| Diversified Metals & Mining | 23 | -13.3% | 1.8% | 17.3% | ATLX 216329% · USAR 52115% · TII 699% |
| Metal, Glass & Plastic Containers | 10 | -6.3% | 13.1% | 5.0% | KRT 158% · MYE 65% · GEF 49% |
| Paper & Plastic Packaging Products & Materials | 7 | 4.5% | 8.3% | -11.6% | PKG 79% · CCK 13% · SON -8% |
| Specialty Chemicals | 41 | 7.4% | -2.4% | -15.7% | ODC 459% · NEU 197% · CMT 81% |
| Commodity Chemicals | 12 | 18.6% | -11.1% | -25.3% | HWKN 265% · LXU 81% · MEOH 72% |
| Diversified Chemicals | 4 | -2.5% | -26.6% | -29.7% | CBT 74% · ASH -16% · CC -44% |
| Precious Metals & Minerals | 8 | 38.9% | 186.7% | -30.2% | ASM 596% · PPTA 375% · MTA 36% |
| Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals | 10 | -5.6% | -2.9% | -33.3% | CF 218% · CTVA 106% · NTR 50% |
| Paper Products | 3 | -20.3% | -51.4% | -96.0% | CLW -40% · MERC -96% · ITP -96% |
Latest Trefis Analyses
| Title | Date | |
|---|---|---|
| DASHBOARDS | ||
| What Could Fuel a Real Turnaround for Alcoa Stock? | 07/17/2026 | |
| Alcoa Stock In Shambles: Down 24% With 8-Day Losing Streak | 06/25/2026 | |
| Alcoa Stock Plummets 20% With 7-Day Losing Streak | 06/24/2026 | |
| Alcoa Stock 6-Day Losing Spree: Stock Falls 15% | 06/23/2026 | |
| Alcoa Stock Surges 19%, With A 6-Day Winning Spree | 05/27/2026 | |
| Alcoa Stock 5-Day Winning Spree: Stock Climbs 14% | 05/23/2026 | |
| Alcoa Stock 5-Day Losing Spree: Stock Falls 16% | 03/24/2026 | |
| Alcoa Earnings Notes | 12/26/2025 | |
| With Alcoa Stock Surging, Have You Considered The Downside? | 10/17/2025 | |
| ARTICLES | ||
| What Could Fuel A Real Turnaround For Alcoa Stock? | 07/17/2026 | |
| The Two Speeds Of Alcoa Stock | 07/02/2026 | |
| Alcoa Stock In Shambles: Down -24% With 8-Day Losing Streak | 06/25/2026 | |
| Alcoa Stock 7-Day Losing Spree: Stock Falls -20% | 06/24/2026 | |
| Alcoa Stock 6-Day Losing Spree: Stock Falls -15% | 06/23/2026 |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons
| Peers to compare with: |
Financials
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Price | 102.73 |
| Mkt Cap | 8.6 |
| Rev LTM | 8,869 |
| Op Inc LTM | 734 |
| FCF LTM | 252 |
| FCF 3Y Avg | 139 |
| CFO LTM | 596 |
| CFO 3Y Avg | 516 |
Growth & Margins
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Rev Chg LTM | 12.6% |
| Rev Chg 3Y Avg | 6.9% |
| Rev Chg Q | 29.0% |
| QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 7.0% |
| Op Inc Chg LTM | 82.4% |
| Op Inc Chg 3Y Avg | 244.8% |
| Op Mgn LTM | 8.1% |
| Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 6.7% |
| QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | 2.9% |
| CFO/Rev LTM | 6.6% |
| CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 6.6% |
| FCF/Rev LTM | 3.0% |
| FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | 1.6% |
Valuation
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| Mkt Cap | 8.6 |
| P/S | 1.1 |
| P/Op Inc | 11.5 |
| P/EBIT | 8.4 |
| P/E | 10.6 |
| P/CFO | 13.3 |
| Total Yield | 10.9% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.1% |
| FCF Yield 3Y Avg | 2.4% |
| D/E | 0.1 |
| Net D/E | 0.1 |
Returns
| Median | |
|---|---|
| Name | |
| 1M Rtn | -8.0% |
| 3M Rtn | -22.6% |
| 6M Rtn | 6.9% |
| 12M Rtn | 65.1% |
| 3Y Rtn | 103.9% |
| 1M Excs Rtn | -6.8% |
| 3M Excs Rtn | -25.4% |
| 6M Excs Rtn | -11.0% |
| 12M Excs Rtn | 59.9% |
| 3Y Excs Rtn | 28.8% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminum | 8,379 | 7,246 | 6,940 | 8,762 | 8,784 |
| Alumina | 6,557 | 6,925 | 5,261 | 5,432 | 4,927 |
| Other | 25 | 3 | 13 | -8 | 11 |
| Elimination of intersegment sales | -2,130 | -2,279 | -1,663 | -1,735 | -1,570 |
| Total | 12,831 | 11,895 | 10,551 | 12,451 | 12,152 |
| $ Mil | 2025 | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aluminum | 6,151 | 6,129 | 5,854 | 6,358 | 6,251 |
| Alumina | 5,671 | 6,138 | 6,153 | 4,447 | 4,385 |
| Cash and cash equivalents | 1,597 | 1,138 | 944 | 1,363 | 1,814 |
| Noncurrent marketable securities | 1,397 | 0 | |||
| Deferred income taxes | 687 | 284 | 333 | 296 | 506 |
| Corporate fixed assets, net | 414 | 366 | 392 | 364 | 374 |
| Other | 243 | 106 | 371 | 364 | 222 |
| Pension assets | 131 | 128 | 125 | 146 | 164 |
| Corporate goodwill | 0 | 139 | 142 | 141 | 140 |
| Elimination of intersegment receivables | -162 | -364 | -159 | -197 | -261 |
| Bauxite | 1,474 | 1,430 | |||
| Total | 16,129 | 14,064 | 14,155 | 14,756 | 15,025 |
Price Behavior
| Market Price | $48.26 | |
| Market Cap ($ Bil) | 12.7 | |
| First Trading Date | 10/07/2014 | |
| Distance from 52W High | -42.3% | |
| 50 Days | 200 Days | |
| DMA Price | $48.53 | $57.75 |
| DMA Trend | up | down |
| Distance from DMA | -0.5% | -16.4% |
| 3M | 1YR | |
| Volatility | 49.2% | 56.2% |
| Downside Capture | 228.66 | 209.43 |
| Upside Capture | 21.48 | 216.36 |
| Correlation (SPY) | 25.6% | 39.2% |
| 1M | 2M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | 3Y | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beta | 1.43 | 2.00 | 1.83 | 1.36 | 1.74 | 1.69 |
| Up Beta | 1.74 | 2.53 | 0.35 | -0.11 | 0.67 | 1.41 |
| Down Beta | 4.33 | 3.99 | 3.28 | 2.39 | 1.74 | 1.70 |
| Up Capture | 149% | 137% | 69% | 123% | 399% | 842% |
| Bmk +ve Days | 10 | 21 | 32 | 68 | 138 | 427 |
| Stock +ve Days | 11 | 21 | 27 | 62 | 127 | 373 |
| Down Capture | -19% | 118% | 249% | 176% | 154% | 111% |
| Bmk -ve Days | 11 | 21 | 32 | 59 | 113 | 324 |
| Stock -ve Days | 10 | 21 | 37 | 65 | 124 | 375 |
[1] Upside and downside betas calculated using positive and negative benchmark daily returns respectively
Based On 1-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 57.5% | 56.2% | 1.01 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 14.0% | 17.9% | 0.58 | 43.0% |
| Equity (SPY) | 18.3% | 12.8% | 1.03 | 39.2% |
| Gold (GLD) | 19.0% | 29.2% | 0.59 | 42.8% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 48.3% | 20.6% | 1.80 | 20.0% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 7.6% | 13.6% | 0.29 | -1.2% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | -32.4% | 43.8% | -0.77 | 27.4% |
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Based On 5-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 1.6% | 55.8% | 0.24 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 5.5% | 19.1% | 0.18 | 58.8% |
| Equity (SPY) | 12.5% | 17.2% | 0.55 | 48.5% |
| Gold (GLD) | 18.7% | 18.8% | 0.81 | 26.9% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 11.4% | 19.5% | 0.46 | 36.3% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 0.7% | 18.9% | -0.07 | 34.8% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 9.4% | 52.6% | 0.36 | 25.2% |
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Based On 10-Year Data
| Annualized Return | Annualized Volatility | Sharpe Ratio | Correlation with AA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA | 8.2% | 55.5% | 0.37 | - |
| Sector ETF (XLB) | 9.8% | 20.7% | 0.42 | 60.4% |
| Equity (SPY) | 15.2% | 17.9% | 0.72 | 51.0% |
| Gold (GLD) | 12.3% | 16.3% | 0.62 | 19.5% |
| Commodities (DBC) | 8.7% | 18.1% | 0.39 | 39.4% |
| Real Estate (VNQ) | 4.7% | 20.7% | 0.19 | 36.7% |
| Bitcoin (BTCUSD) | 63.2% | 66.2% | 1.03 | 19.0% |
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Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Updated 9/10/2026| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/16/2026 | -6.1% | -3.4% | 6.9% |
| 4/16/2026 | -6.8% | -7.2% | -11.2% |
| 1/22/2026 | -1.5% | -4.0% | -5.3% |
| 10/22/2025 | 12.6% | 9.1% | 0.8% |
| 7/16/2025 | 2.9% | 12.4% | 10.1% |
| 4/16/2025 | -7.0% | 5.5% | 17.3% |
| 1/22/2025 | -3.7% | -9.4% | -11.3% |
| 10/16/2024 | -4.1% | -0.5% | -1.8% |
| ... | |||
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 17 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 3.4% | 5.5% | 15.1% |
| Median Negative | -5.4% | -9.4% | -10.8% |
| Max Positive | 15.2% | 13.4% | 31.0% |
| Max Negative | -16.9% | -19.5% | -28.5% |
| Forward Returns | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
| 7/16/2026 | -6.1% | -3.4% | 6.9% |
| 4/16/2026 | -6.8% | -7.2% | -11.2% |
| 1/22/2026 | -1.5% | -4.0% | -5.3% |
| 10/22/2025 | 12.6% | 9.1% | 0.8% |
| 7/16/2025 | 2.9% | 12.4% | 10.1% |
| 4/16/2025 | -7.0% | 5.5% | 17.3% |
| 1/22/2025 | -3.7% | -9.4% | -11.3% |
| 10/16/2024 | -4.1% | -0.5% | -1.8% |
| 7/17/2024 | -3.2% | -10.8% | -12.5% |
| 4/17/2024 | -0.2% | 1.5% | 12.9% |
| 1/17/2024 | -1.6% | 9.5% | 0.8% |
| 10/18/2023 | -8.6% | -10.1% | -1.5% |
| 7/19/2023 | -6.2% | 0.0% | -16.2% |
| 4/19/2023 | -2.4% | -14.0% | -10.4% |
| 1/18/2023 | -7.4% | -2.4% | -8.8% |
| 10/19/2022 | 3.4% | 13.4% | 26.2% |
| 7/20/2022 | 0.2% | 6.0% | 19.7% |
| 4/20/2022 | -16.9% | -19.5% | -28.5% |
| 1/19/2022 | 2.7% | 1.9% | 28.2% |
| 10/14/2021 | 15.2% | 2.9% | 7.1% |
| 7/15/2021 | -4.6% | 7.8% | 31.0% |
| 4/15/2021 | 8.5% | 1.1% | 20.9% |
| 1/20/2021 | -12.4% | -18.3% | 1.3% |
| 10/14/2020 | -5.4% | 2.5% | 20.2% |
| SUMMARY STATS | |||
| # Positive | 7 | 13 | 14 |
| # Negative | 17 | 11 | 10 |
| Median Positive | 3.4% | 5.5% | 15.1% |
| Median Negative | -5.4% | -9.4% | -10.8% |
| Max Positive | 15.2% | 13.4% | 31.0% |
| Max Negative | -16.9% | -19.5% | -28.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for More| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| Report Date | Filing Date | Filing |
|---|---|---|
| 06/30/2026 | 07/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2026 | 04/30/2026 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2025 | 02/26/2026 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2025 | 10/28/2025 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2025 | 07/31/2025 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2025 | 05/01/2025 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2024 | 02/20/2025 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2024 | 10/31/2024 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2024 | 08/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2024 | 05/02/2024 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2023 | 02/21/2024 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2023 | 10/26/2023 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2023 | 07/27/2023 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2023 | 05/04/2023 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2022 | 02/23/2023 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2022 | 10/27/2022 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2022 | 07/25/2022 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2022 | 05/05/2022 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2021 | 02/24/2022 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2021 | 10/28/2021 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2021 | 07/29/2021 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2021 | 05/05/2021 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2020 | 02/25/2021 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2020 | 10/30/2020 | 10-Q |
| 06/30/2020 | 07/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 03/31/2020 | 04/29/2020 | 10-Q |
| 12/31/2019 | 02/21/2020 | 10-K |
| 09/30/2019 | 10/31/2019 | 10-Q |
Recent Forward Guidance
Updated 7/27/2026Latest: Q2 2026 Earnings Reported 7/16/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q3 2026 Operational Tax Expense | Reported | 80.00 Mil | 85.00 Mil | 90.00 Mil | -26.1% | Lower New | Guidance: 115.00 Mil for Q2 2026 | |
| 2026 Alumina Production | Reported | 9.50 Mil | 9.55 Mil | 9.60 Mil | -2.6% | Lowered | Guidance: 9.80 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Alumina Shipments | Reported | 11.50 Mil | 11.55 Mil | 11.60 Mil | -2.9% | Lowered | Guidance: 11.90 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Aluminum Segment Production | Reported | 2.40 Mil | 2.50 Mil | 2.60 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Aluminum Segment Shipments | Reported | 2.60 Mil | 2.70 Mil | 2.80 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.70 Mil for 2026 | |
Prior: Q1 2026 Earnings Reported 4/16/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| 2026 Alumina Segment Production | Reported | 9.70 Mil | 9.80 Mil | 9.90 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 9.80 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Alumina Segment Shipments | Reported | 11.80 Mil | 11.90 Mil | 12.00 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 11.90 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Aluminum Segment Production | Reported | 2.40 Mil | 2.50 Mil | 2.60 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.50 Mil for 2026 | |
| 2026 Aluminum Segment Shipments | Reported | 2.60 Mil | 2.70 Mil | 2.80 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.70 Mil for 2026 | |
| Q2 2026 Operational Tax Expense | Reported | 110.00 Mil | 115.00 Mil | 120.00 Mil | 64.3% | Higher New | Guidance: 70.00 Mil for Q1 2026 | |
Q4 2025 Earnings Reported 1/22/2026
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q1 2026 Operational tax expense | Reported | 65.00 Mil | 70.00 Mil | 75.00 Mil | 55.6% | Higher New | Actual: 45.00 Mil for Q4 2025 | |
| 2026 Alumina segment production | Reported | 9.70 Mil | 9.80 Mil | 9.90 Mil | 2.1% | Higher New | Actual: 9.60 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Alumina shipments | Reported | 11.80 Mil | 11.90 Mil | 12.00 Mil | -9.8% | Lower New | Actual: 13.20 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Aluminum segment production | Reported | 2.40 Mil | 2.50 Mil | 2.60 Mil | 4.2% | Higher New | Actual: 2.40 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2026 Aluminum shipments | Reported | 2.60 Mil | 2.70 Mil | 2.80 Mil | 5.9% | Higher New | Actual: 2.55 Mil for 2025 | |
Q3 2025 Earnings Reported 10/22/2025
| Forward Guidance | Guidance Change | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metric | Source | Low | Mid | High | % Chg | % Delta | Change | Prior |
| Q4 2025 Operational Tax Expense | Reported | 40.00 Mil | 45.00 Mil | 50.00 Mil | -18.2% | Lower New | Guidance: 55.00 Mil for Q3 2025 | |
| 2025 Alumina Production | Reported | 9.50 Mil | 9.60 Mil | 9.70 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 9.60 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Alumina Shipments | Reported | 13.10 Mil | 13.20 Mil | 13.30 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 13.20 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Aluminum Production | Reported | 2.30 Mil | 2.40 Mil | 2.50 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.40 Mil for 2025 | |
| 2025 Aluminum Shipments | Reported | 2.50 Mil | 2.55 Mil | 2.60 Mil | 0 | Affirmed | Guidance: 2.55 Mil for 2025 | |
Insider Activity
Updated 9/1/2026| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bacchi, Renato | EVP & Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9012026 | 51.02 | 700 | 35,714 | 3,822,876 | Form |
| 2 | Jones, Tammi A | EVP & CHRO | Direct | Sell | 8282026 | 50.60 | 15,628 | 790,733 | 2,014,730 | Form |
| 3 | Hastings, Andrew | EVP & Gen. Counsel | Direct | Sell | 8182026 | 50.90 | 6,000 | 305,412 | 1,910,454 | Form |
| 4 | Reed, Matthew T | EVP, Chief Operations Officer | Direct | Sell | 7232026 | 46.82 | 4,600 | 215,372 | 3,360,271 | Form |
| # | Owner | Title | Holding | Action | Filing Date | Price | Shares | Transacted Value | Value of Held Shares | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bacchi, Renato | EVP & Chief Commercial Officer | Direct | Sell | 9012026 | 51.02 | 700 | 35,714 | 3,822,876 | Form |
| 2 | Jones, Tammi A | EVP & CHRO | Direct | Sell | 8282026 | 50.60 | 15,628 | 790,733 | 2,014,730 | Form |
| 3 | Hastings, Andrew | EVP & Gen. Counsel | Direct | Sell | 8182026 | 50.90 | 6,000 | 305,412 | 1,910,454 | Form |
| 4 | Reed, Matthew T | EVP, Chief Operations Officer | Direct | Sell | 7232026 | 46.82 | 4,600 | 215,372 | 3,360,271 | Form |
Investor Activity (13F)
Updated Sep 13, 2026Active managers (13F portfolio over $250M, at least 3 holdings) with a position over $5M that is either over 10% of their portfolio or held in a concentrated book of 50 or fewer total positions. Index/ETF, sovereign, bank, community-bank and charitable/donor-advised filers are excluded.
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oxbow Capital Management (HK) Ltd | $45.4 Mil | 12.2% | 6 | ADD +8.7% | 13F |
| Drummond Knight Asset Management Pty Ltd | $31.7 Mil | 11.2% | 14 | TRIM -54.9% | 13F |
| Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. | $59.9 Mil | 1.9% | 44 | TRIM -72.3% | 13F |
| FengHe Fund Management Pte. Ltd. | $7.3 Mil | 1.0% | 31 | New | 13F |
| Active Manager | Value | % of Portfolio | Total Positions | QoQ | Filing |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maple Rock Capital Partners Inc. | $59.9 Mil | 1.9% | 44 | TRIM -72.3% | 13F |
| Oxbow Capital Management (HK) Ltd | $45.4 Mil | 12.2% | 6 | ADD +8.7% | 13F |
| Drummond Knight Asset Management Pty Ltd | $31.7 Mil | 11.2% | 14 | TRIM -54.9% | 13F |
| FengHe Fund Management Pte. Ltd. | $7.3 Mil | 1.0% | 31 | New | 13F |
AA Trade Sentinel
Neutral / Watch
CONVICTION RATIONALE
Conviction is neutral due to a sharp split in performance. The Aluminum segment is generating record profits of $1,073 million on strong pricing, but this is offset by losses in the Alumina segment and a recent cut to its full-year shipment guidance. The pending large acquisition of South32's assets adds significant uncertainty until the deal closes and integration begins.
STOCK ARCHETYPE
Commodity ProducerRevenue = (Shipment Volume in metric tons) x (Average Realized Price per metric ton) The spread between the realized price of aluminum (LME + premiums) and the costs of production (alumina, energy, labor).
INVESTMENT THESIS
Evidence suggests the Aluminum segment's strength is sufficient to carry the company through near-term weakness and a major acquisition.
- The Aluminum segment achieved a record 32.3% adjusted EBITDA margin in Q2 2026.
- Average realized aluminum price was $4,752 per metric ton in Q2 2026.
- Aluminum shipments increased by 113 thousand metric tons sequentially in Q2.
- The 2026 order book is stronger than at the same time last year.
- Over 2,500 kmt of competitor smelting capacity remains curtailed in the Middle East.
PRIMARY RISK
Operational issues in the Alumina segment, evidenced by a guidance cut and negative margins, combined with poor cost control, could erode the benefits of the strong aluminum market.
- The Alumina segment reported a -$96 million adjusted EBITDA loss in Q2 2026.
- Full-year 2026 Alumina shipment guidance was lowered by -2.9%.
- Trailing-twelve-month operating expenses grew 44.2% while revenue grew only 6.5%.
- The basic share count has increased 48.3% over the last three years.
- Trailing-twelve-month operating margin fell to 7.9% from 12.2% a year earlier.
| KPI | Status | Rationale |
|---|---|---|
| Third-Party Aluminum Shipments | 726 kmt for Q2 2026 - Accelerating | The strong sequential and year-over-year growth is driven by operational improvements, including the completion of several smelter restarts at facilities like San Ciprián, Alumar, Lista, and Portland, as well as the timing of sales from inventory repositioned in the prior quarter. |
| Third-Party Alumina Shipments | 1,618 kmt for Q2 2026 - Weakening | The flat sequential performance was attributed to operational stability issues at the Pinjarra refinery, which offset strength elsewhere. Citing these challenges, the company lowered its full-year 2026 production and shipment guidance for the segment. |
| Average realized third-party price per metric ton of aluminum | $4,752 (Q2 2026) | The all-in price received for aluminum, including LME, regional, and product premiums. It is the most critical driver of profitability in the current environment. |
| Average realized third-party price per metric ton of alumina | $334 (Q2 2026) | The price received for alumina, reflecting market conditions for the intermediate product. Currently, this price is not sufficient to generate segment profitability. |
Aluminum Boom vs. Alumina Bust
BULL VIEW
Bulls believe strong aluminum fundamentals, with tight supply in key Western markets, will keep prices and premiums elevated, allowing record profits to fund the transformative South32 acquisition.
CORE TENSION
Can the Aluminum segment's record $1,073 million Q2 EBITDA offset the Alumina segment's operational issues, which prompted a -2.9% cut to 2026 shipment guidance?
PREVAILING SENTIMENT
The latest evidence favors the bears, as the market reacted to the Alumina guidance cut with a -9.0% stock decline, ignoring the record Aluminum segment results.
BEAR VIEW
Bears argue the Alumina segment's -$96 million Q2 loss and lowered guidance are leading indicators of operational decay that, combined with cost inflation, will overwhelm cyclical strength in aluminum.
| Timeline | Event & Metric To Watch |
|---|---|
by the end of 2026 | Australian Mine Approval Delay Watch: Announcements from the Western Australian Environmental Protection Agency (WA EPA) or Australian government regarding the mine plan assessments. |
by the end of 2026 | Australia Mine Approvals Watch: The company anticipates achieving Ministerial decisions for its Australian mine approvals. |
Thursday, September 10, 2026 | Jefferies Industrials Conference Watch: Alcoa will participate in a question-and-answer session at the Jefferies Global Industrials Conference. |
10/20/2026 | Negative Earnings Reaction Watch: Further weakness in alumina segment results or guidance, given the recent downward revision and market commentary. |
10/20/2026 | Persistent Alumina Price Weakness Watch: Peer commentary on alumina market balance and pricing trends from KALU, RS, and CENX earnings reports. |
10/21/2026 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer Reliance (RS) is scheduled to report earnings. |
11/4/2026 | Peer Earnings Report Watch: Peer Century Aluminum (CENX) is scheduled to report earnings. |
No set date | Acquisition Financing And Integration Watch: Updates on regulatory approvals, final financing costs, and any revisions to the stated $900 million NPV of synergies. |
| Date | Event | Stock Impact |
|---|---|---|
2026-09-09 | Prices Debt For Acquisition Details: Alcoa announced the pricing of a $2.6 billion aggregate principal amount of senior notes to finance the cash portion of the South32 asset acquisition. | -6.6% $51.74 -> $48.30 |
2026-07-16 | Lowers Alumina Production Guidance Details: The company lowered its 2026 guidance for Alumina Production by -2.6% and Alumina Shipments by -2.9%, disclosed at its Q2 earnings report. | -9.5% $48.49 -> $43.89 |
2026-07-16 | Reports Record Q2 Revenue Details: Alcoa reported record quarterly revenue of $3.966 billion for the second quarter of 2026. However, the stock reacted negatively with a -9.0% two-day move. | -9.5% $48.49 -> $43.89 |
2026-06-30 | Announces South32 Asset Acquisition Details: Alcoa entered a definitive agreement to acquire South32's bauxite, alumina, and aluminum assets for an upfront consideration of approximately $4.1 billion in cash and stock. | -11.2% $53.37 -> $47.39 |
2026-05-15 | Redeems Remaining 2028 Notes Details: The company redeemed the remaining $219 million aggregate principal amount of its 6.125% notes due in 2028 at the principal amount. | -5.2% $65.79 -> $62.37 |
2026-04-16 | Reports Q1 Results, Stock Declines Details: Alcoa reported first quarter 2026 results, after which the stock had a two-day reaction of -7.0% versus a 1.0% move for the S&P 500. | -6.8% $70.13 -> $65.39 |
2026-04-07 | San Ciprián Smelter Restart Completed Details: The company successfully and safely completed the restart of the San Ciprián smelter, which had been paused in April 2025 following a power outage. | +1.1% $70.76 -> $71.51 |
2026-03-03 | S&P Upgrades Credit Rating Details: Standard and Poor's Global Ratings upgraded Alcoa's long-term debt rating to BB+ from BB and revised the outlook from positive to stable. | -3.9% $63.75 -> $61.23 |
Position Sizing
4% - 6%
NORMAL POSITION
Sizing is volatility-based: AA trades at roughly 52% annualized options-implied volatility versus about 13% for the S&P 500 (3.9x the market), around the 36th percentile of its own trailing year. A 4% - 6% position keeps a single-name swing of that size within a diversified portfolio's risk budget.
Diversification Alternatives
CENX - Century Aluminum
Pure-Play Smelter ExposureCentury Aluminum offers more direct exposure to aluminum prices without the drag from a large, underperforming alumina refining business. Its trailing-twelve-month operating margin of 14.6% is substantially higher than Alcoa's 7.9%.
KALU - Kaiser Aluminum
Value-Added Product FocusKaiser focuses on higher-margin, specialized products for aerospace and other demanding applications. This strategy of maximizing value over volume provides a different, less commodity-driven business model.
A vertically integrated commodity producer whose profitability is currently dominated by its direct leverage to high aluminum prices and regional supply-chain premiums.
Alcoa is capitalizing on a tight aluminum market, with supply disruptions and low inventories driving record revenue and profitability in its Aluminum segment. This strength is masking weakness in its Alumina segment, which faces challenging market conditions. The company is using this period of strong cash flow to strengthen its balance sheet and fund a major strategic acquisition of South32's assets, which will increase its scale in both segments. The investment thesis hinges on the continuation of strong aluminum market fundamentals.
Sustained or rising LME aluminum prices and regional premiums (Midwest, Rotterdam); announcements of further supply curtailments by competitors; a recovery in alumina (API) prices.
A sharp decline in LME prices or regional premiums; a faster-than-expected restart of curtailed Middle East production; a global recession impacting industrial demand for aluminum.
Short-term fluctuations in foreign currency exchange rates; minor timing differences in shipments between quarters.
Repricing Catalyst
The market's recognition of the company's significant earnings power in the current strong aluminum market, as demonstrated by the record Q2 2026 results, and the successful financing and integration of the value-accretive South32 asset acquisition.
Alumina
$6.6B TTM (51% of Total)What It Is
This segment represents global bauxite mining and a worldwide refining system that processes bauxite into alumina. Alumina is sold to the company's internal Aluminum segment and to external aluminum smelter customers worldwide. A portion is also sold to customers who process it into industrial chemical products.
Who Pays & How
External aluminum smelters and traders pay for alumina. They choose Alcoa for its position as a low-cost producer and reliable supplier with a global footprint. Approximately two-thirds of production is sold under supply contracts.
Competition
Aluminum
$8.4B TTM (65% of Total)What It Is
This segment consists of a worldwide smelting and casthouse system that processes alumina into primary aluminum products, including commodity grade ingot and value-add products (foundry, billet, rod, slab). It sells to external customers and traders for use in transportation, building and construction, packaging, and other industrial markets.
Who Pays & How
Fabricators and traders in various industrial sectors pay for primary aluminum. They choose Alcoa for its global footprint and strong regional presence, which is increasingly valued for providing secure and reliable supply, especially in North America and Europe which are in structural deficit.
Competition
Alcoa — Investor Video Playlist
Industry Resources
| Materials Resources |
| Chemical & Engineering News (C&EN) |
| Mining.com |
| Plastics News |
| Aluminum Resources |
| Light Metal Age |
| Aluminium International Today |
| The Aluminum Association |
External Quote Links
| Y Finance | Barrons |
| TradingView | Morningstar |
| SeekingAlpha | ValueLine |
| Motley Fool | Robinhood |
| CNBC | Etrade |
| MarketWatch | Unusual Whales |
| YCharts | Perplexity Finance |
| FinViz |
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