Alcoa (AA)
Market Price (10/16/2025): $36.46 | Market Cap: $9.4 BilSector: Materials | Industry: Aluminum
Alcoa (AA)
Market Price (10/16/2025): $36.46Market Cap: $9.4 BilSector: MaterialsIndustry: Aluminum
Investment Highlights
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.3%, FCF Yield is 6.2% | Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87% | Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3% |
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% | ||
Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27% | ||
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 50% |
Attractive yieldTotal YieldTotal Yield = Earnings Yield + Dividend Yield, Earnings Yield = Net Income / Market Cap Dividend Yield = Total Dividends / Market Cap is 12%, ERPEquity Risk Premium (ERP) = Total Yield - Risk Free Rate, Reflects the premium above risk free assets offered by the investment. is 7.3%, FCF Yield is 6.2% |
Strong revenue growthRev Chg LTMRevenue Change % Last Twelve Months (LTM) is 19% |
Valuation becoming less expensiveP/S 6M Chg %Price/Sales change over 6 months. Declining P/S indicates valuation has become less expensive. is -27% |
Low stock price volatilityVol 12M is 50% |
Weak multi-year price returns2Y Excs Rtn is -19%, 3Y Excs Rtn is -87% |
Weak revenue growthRev Chg 3Y AvgRevenue Change % averaged over trailing 3 years is -0.3% |
Market Valuation & Key Metrics
AA Stock
Return vs. Risk
Price Returns Compared
2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Total [1] | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Returns | |||||||
AA Return | 7% | 159% | -23% | -24% | 12% | -3% | 70% |
Peers Return | 6% | 46% | -7% | 29% | 8% | 39% | 177% |
S&P 500 Return | 16% | 27% | -19% | 24% | 23% | 13% | 103% |
Monthly Win Rates [3] | |||||||
AA Win Rate | 67% | 75% | 42% | 42% | 50% | 56% | |
Peers Win Rate | 58% | 55% | 50% | 50% | 48% | 69% | |
S&P 500 Win Rate | 58% | 75% | 42% | 67% | 75% | 67% | |
Max Drawdowns [4] | |||||||
AA Max Drawdown | -75% | -22% | -43% | -48% | -25% | -40% | |
Peers Max Drawdown | -66% | -15% | -38% | -21% | -25% | -28% | |
S&P 500 Max Drawdown | -31% | -1% | -25% | -1% | -2% | -15% | |
[1] Cumulative total returns since the beginning of 2020
[2] Peers: ATI, CENX, AA, CSTM, KALU. See AA Returns vs. Peers.
[3] Win Rate = % of calendar months in which monthly returns were positive
[4] Max drawdown represents maximum peak-to-trough decline within a year
[5] 2025 data is for the year up to 10/15/2025 (YTD)
Downturns Compared
Event | AA | S&P 500 |
---|---|---|
2022 Inflation Shock | ||
% Loss | -75.4% | -25.4% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 306.1% | 34.1% |
Time to Breakeven | Not Fully Recovered days | 464 days |
2020 Covid Pandemic | ||
% Loss | -74.5% | -33.9% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 292.5% | 51.3% |
Time to Breakeven | 256 days | 148 days |
2018 Correction | ||
% Loss | -72.2% | -19.8% |
% Gain to Breakeven | 260.0% | 24.7% |
Time to Breakeven | 860 days | 120 days |
How Low Can It Go?
Alcoa's stock fell -75.4% during the 2022 Inflation Shock from a high on 3/24/2022. A -75.4% loss requires a 306.1% gain to breakeven.
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Asset Allocation
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Latest Trefis Analyses
Title | Topic | Date | |
---|---|---|---|
DASHBOARDS | |||
Alcoa Earnings Notes | |||
Alcoa vs United Airlines: Which Is A Better Investment? | Counter-Intuitive Comparisons | ||
How Does Alcoa Stock Stack Up Against Its Peers? | Peer Comparison | ||
AA Dip Buy Analysis | |||
Alcoa Total Shareholder Return (TSR): 13.7% in 2024 and -11.9% 3-yr compounded annual returns (below peer average) | |||
Alcoa (AA) Operating Cash Flow Comparison | Financials | ||
Alcoa (AA) Net Income Comparison | Financials | ||
Alcoa (AA) Operating Income Comparison | Financials | ||
Alcoa (AA) Revenue Comparison | Financials | ||
Alcoa vs. ATI: With Return Forecast Of 24%, ATI Is A Better Bet | Peer Comparison | ||
ARTICLES | |||
What’s Happening With Alcoa Stock? | September 30th, 2025 | ||
How Alcoa Stock Can Fall 50%? | August 28th, 2025 | ||
How Will Alcoa Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? | July 10th, 2025 | ||
Now Is Not The Time To Buy Alcoa Stock | May 20th, 2025 | ||
How Will Alcoa Stock React To Its Upcoming Earnings? | April 12th, 2025 |
Trade Ideas
Select past ideas related to AA. For more, see Trefis Trade Ideas.
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.5% | -3.5% | -7.8% |
09302025 | GPK | Graphic Packaging | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -11.7% | -11.7% | -11.7% |
09302025 | FCX | Freeport-McMoRan | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.7% | 6.7% | -0.9% |
07312025 | KWR | Quaker Houghton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.8% | 15.8% | 0.0% |
06302025 | TGLS | Tecnoglass | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -18.1% | -18.1% | -19.6% |
09302022 | AA | Alcoa | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 27.0% | -12.8% | -22.4% |
Date | Ticker | Company | Category | Trade Strategy | 6M Fwd Rtn | 12M Fwd Rtn | 12M Max DD |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
09302025 | AXTA | Axalta Coating Systems | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | -3.5% | -3.5% | -7.8% |
09302025 | GPK | Graphic Packaging | Dip Buy | DB | P/E OPMDip Buy with Low PE and High MarginBuying dips for companies with tame PE and meaningfully high operating margin | -11.7% | -11.7% | -11.7% |
09302025 | FCX | Freeport-McMoRan | Monopoly | MY | Getting CheaperMonopoly-Like with P/S DeclineLarge cap with monopoly-like margins or cash flow generation and getting cheaper based on P/S multiple | 6.7% | 6.7% | -0.9% |
07312025 | KWR | Quaker Houghton | Dip Buy | DB | FCFY OPMDip Buy with High FCF Yield and High MarginBuying dips for companies with high FCF yield and meaningfully high operating margin | 15.8% | 15.8% | 0.0% |
06302025 | TGLS | Tecnoglass | Quality | Q | Momentum | UpsideQuality Stocks with Momentum and UpsideBuying quality stocks with strong momentum but still having room to run | -18.1% | -18.1% | -19.6% |
09302022 | AA | Alcoa | Dip Buy | DB | FCF Yield | Low D/EDip Buy with High Free Cash Flow YieldBuying dips for companies with significant free cash flow yield (FCF / Market Cap) and reasonable debt / market cap | 27.0% | -12.8% | -22.4% |
Research & Analysis
Invest in Strategies
Wealth Management
Peer Comparisons for Alcoa
Financials
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Price | 36.46 |
Mkt Cap | 3.0 |
Rev LTM | 4,464 |
Op Inc LTM | 254 |
FCF LTM | -22 |
FCF 3Y Avg | -35 |
CFO LTM | 243 |
CFO 3Y Avg | 281 |
Growth & Margins
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Rev Chg LTM | 6.8% |
Rev Chg 3Y Avg | -2.9% |
Rev Chg Q | 8.9% |
QoQ Delta Rev Chg LTM | 2.3% |
Op Mgn LTM | 7.4% |
Op Mgn 3Y Avg | 3.2% |
QoQ Delta Op Mgn LTM | -0.2% |
CFO/Rev LTM | 4.8% |
CFO/Rev 3Y Avg | 4.2% |
FCF/Rev LTM | -0.9% |
FCF/Rev 3Y Avg | -0.6% |
Valuation
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
Mkt Cap | 3.0 |
P/S | 0.7 |
P/EBIT | 12.6 |
P/E | 25.3 |
P/CFO | 9.2 |
Total Yield | 4.0% |
Dividend Yield | 0.0% |
FCF Yield 3Y Avg | -1.8% |
D/E | 0.3 |
Net D/E | 0.2 |
Returns
Median | |
---|---|
Name | |
1M Rtn | 7.6% |
3M Rtn | 17.6% |
6M Rtn | 82.2% |
12M Rtn | 16.7% |
3Y Rtn | 45.0% |
1M Excs Rtn | 5.2% |
3M Excs Rtn | 10.2% |
6M Excs Rtn | 52.8% |
12M Excs Rtn | 2.0% |
3Y Excs Rtn | -42.4% |
Comparison Analyses
Segment Financials
Revenue by Segment
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Aluminum | 6,940 | 8,762 | 8,784 | 6,377 | 6,820 |
Alumina | 5,261 | 5,432 | 4,927 | 3,895 | 4,811 |
Other | 13 | -8 | 11 | 22 | 83 |
Elimination of intersegment sales | -1,663 | -1,735 | -1,570 | -2,221 | -2,557 |
Bauxite | 1,213 | 1,276 | |||
Total | 10,551 | 12,451 | 12,152 | 9,286 | 10,433 |
$ Mil | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Alumina | 6,153 | 4,333 | 4,303 | ||
Aluminum | 5,854 | 6,214 | 6,588 | ||
Cash and cash equivalents | 944 | 1,607 | 879 | ||
Corporate fixed assets, net | 392 | 453 | 519 | ||
Other | 371 | 182 | 291 | ||
Deferred income taxes | 333 | 655 | 642 | ||
Corporate goodwill | 142 | 141 | 145 | ||
Pension assets | 125 | ||||
Elimination of intersegment receivables | -159 | -193 | -170 | ||
Bauxite | 1,468 | 1,434 | |||
Total | 14,155 | 14,860 | 14,631 |
Returns Analyses
Earnings Returns History
Expand for MoreForward Returns | |||
---|---|---|---|
Earnings Date | 1D Returns | 5D Returns | 21D Returns |
7/16/2025 | 2.9% | 12.4% | 10.1% |
4/16/2025 | -7.0% | 5.5% | 17.3% |
1/22/2025 | -3.7% | -9.4% | -11.3% |
10/16/2024 | -4.1% | -0.5% | -1.8% |
7/10/2024 | 1.9% | -4.3% | -20.4% |
4/17/2024 | -0.2% | 1.5% | 12.9% |
1/17/2024 | -1.6% | 9.5% | 0.8% |
10/18/2023 | -8.6% | -10.1% | -1.5% |
... | |||
SUMMARY STATS | |||
# Positive | 8 | 15 | 15 |
# Negative | 16 | 9 | 9 |
Median Positive | 3.2% | 6.0% | 17.3% |
Median Negative | -5.0% | -10.1% | -11.3% |
Max Positive | 15.2% | 14.8% | 31.0% |
Max Negative | -16.9% | -19.5% | -28.5% |
SEC Filings
Expand for MoreReport Date | Filing Date | Filing |
---|---|---|
6302025 | 7312025 | 10-Q 6/30/2025 |
3312025 | 5012025 | 10-Q 3/31/2025 |
12312024 | 2202025 | 10-K 12/31/2024 |
9302024 | 10312024 | 10-Q 9/30/2024 |
6302024 | 8022024 | 10-Q 6/30/2024 |
3312024 | 5022024 | 10-Q 3/31/2024 |
12312023 | 2212024 | 10-K 12/31/2023 |
9302023 | 10262023 | 10-Q 9/30/2023 |
6302023 | 7272023 | 10-Q 6/30/2023 |
3312023 | 5042023 | 10-Q 3/31/2023 |
12312022 | 2232023 | 10-K 12/31/2022 |
9302022 | 10272022 | 10-Q 9/30/2022 |
6302022 | 7252022 | 10-Q 6/30/2022 |
3312022 | 5052022 | 10-Q 3/31/2022 |
12312021 | 2242022 | 10-K 12/31/2021 |
9302021 | 10282021 | 10-Q 9/30/2021 |
Insider Activity
Expand for MoreOwner | Title | Filing Date | Action | Price | Shares | TransactedValue | Value ofHeld Shares | Form | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0 | Bacchi Renato | EVP & Chief Commercial Officer | 10242024 | Sell | 42.29 | 23,867 | 1,009,431 | 2,424,165 | Form |
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