Zynga stock (NASDAQ: ZNGA) has fallen 13% in a month, while it’s up 18% YTD. The company recently reported downbeat Q1 results, with earnings of $0.07 on a per share and adjusted basis falling below the $0.09 consensus estimate. Similarly, net bookings of $695 million fell short of the $741 million consensus estimate. The company’s management did not provide a full-year outlook, given the pending transaction of Take-Two Interactive’s acquisition of Zynga. The company recently announced that its President of publishing business – Bernard Kim – is leaving to become CEO of Match Group. Downbeat results combined with changes in the management led to a decline in ZNGA stock over the past few days. A sell-off in broader markets owing to the rising interest rates and high inflation didn’t help ZNGA stock, either.
Now that ZNGA has seen a fall of 13% in a month, will it continue its downward trajectory, or is a rise imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a higher chance of a rise for ZNGA stock over the next month. Of 262 instances in the last ten years that ZNGA stock saw a twenty-one-day fall of 13% or more, 143 resulted in ZNGA stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 143 out of 262, or about a 55% chance of a rise in ZNGA stock over the next month. See our analysis of Zynga Stock Chance of Rise for more details.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last ten years’ data
- After moving -7% or more over five days, the stock rose on 48% of the occasions in the next five days.
- After moving -8% or more over ten days, the stock rose on 58% of the occasions in the next ten days.
- After moving -13% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose on 55% of the occasions in the next twenty-one days.
This pattern suggests a higher chance of a rise in ZNGA stock over the next ten days and the next month. However, it has a marginally higher chance of a decline in the next five days.
Zynga (ZNGA) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers
- Five-Day Return: EA highest at 1.1%; PLTK lowest at -23.9%
- Ten-Day Return: ATVI highest at 0.9%; PLTK lowest at -28.2%
- Twenty-One Day Return: EA highest at -2.1%; PLTK lowest at -34.3%
|S&P 500 Return||-5%||-18%||76%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||-8%||-23%||202%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 5/13/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016