Why Will Exxon Mobil’s Upstream Operations Drive Its Value In The Future?

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Exxon Mobil

Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) is a US-based energy company with integrated upstream and downstream operations. Just like other integrated companies, Exxon also generates the majority of its revenue from its downstream operations.  However, the company has to rely on its upstream business for its profitability and returning value to its shareholders.

That said, the commodity slump that began in mid-2014 reversed this trend. Most of the integrated companies, including Exxon, had to fall back on their downstream operations to sustain their margins in the commodity down cycle. While Exxon’s downstream division enabled it to hold a firm ground in the last 5-6 quarters, these operations began to decline in the June quarter of 2016, due to a plummeting refining margin caused by an excess supply of crude oil. However, the unexpected recovery in commodity prices in the second quarter helped the company to mitigate this drop and post a decent set of results for the quarter.

The change of events has made it clear that the downstream operations of Exxon Mobil, or any other integrated company, cannot support its profitability for very long without sustainable upstream operations. Below, we show how Exxon Mobil’s upstream division accounts for a majority of its EBITDA, despite the ongoing turbulence in the commodity prices. Further, we also present how Exxon’s upstream operations will continue to drive its growth as well as value in the future.

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Notes:

1) The purpose of these analyses is to help readers focus on a few important things. We hope such lean communication sparks thinking, and encourages readers to comment and ask questions on the comment section, or email content@trefis.com

2) Figures mentioned are approximate values to help our readers remember the key concepts more intuitively. For precise figures, please refer to our complete analysis for Exxon Mobil

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