The Western Union Company Stock Gained 5% Over The Last Week, Is It Attractive?

The Western Union Company stock (NYSE: WU) has gained 5.1% in the last week, outperforming the S&P 500 (down 1.2%). Further, the stock increased 2.3% in the last ten days vs a 3.5% fall in the broader markets. However, if you look at the change over the last one month, it tells a different story – WU stock slipped 6.9% as compared to the 2.4% drop in the S&P500. Overall, it implies that although the stock has underperformed the S&P500 over the one month, it has seen some recovery over the last ten days. 

The company posted mixed results in the third quarter, beating the earnings estimates but missing the revenue expectations. The recovery in the WU revenues over the first nine months has been slower than expected. Notably, the consensus estimate for full-year FY2021 revenues is around $5.08 billion – down 4% as compared to the 2019 levels. Further, several countries in the world have reintroduced Covid-19 related restrictions in light of the surge in cases and the emergence of a new variant, Omicron. This will likely affect The Western Union Company Revenues growth in the year. It was the main reason behind the stock drop over the last one month.

Now, is WU stock set to rise further, or could we expect some decline? We believe that there is a 65% chance of a rise in The Western Union Company stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on The Western Union Company Stock Chance of Rise. 

Twenty-One Day: WU -6.9%, vs. S&P500 -2.4%; Underperformed market

(10% likelihood event; 65% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• The Western Union Company stock lost 6.9% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) decline of 2.4%
• A change of -6.9% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 10% likelihood event, which has occurred 245 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
• Of these 245 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 160 occasions
• This points to a 65% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: WU 2.3%, vs. S&P500 -3.5%; Outperformed market

(33% likelihood event; 52% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• The Western Union Company stock increased 2.3% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) drop of 3.5%
• A change of 2.3% or more over ten trading days is a 33% likelihood event, which has occurred 827 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
• Of these 827 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 429 occasions
• This points to a 52% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: WU 5.1%, vs. S&P500 -1.2%; Outperformed market

(5% likelihood event; 43% probability of rise over next five days)

• The Western Union Company stock gained 5.1% over a five-day trading period ending 12/03/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) decline of 1.2%
• A change of 5.1% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 5% likelihood event, which has occurred 119 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
• Of these 119 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 51 occasions
• This points to a 43% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 12/6/2021
[2] Cumulative total returns since 2017

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