How Much In Online Revenue Can Walmart Generate In 2020?

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Walmart‘s (NYSE: WMT) e-commerce sales are expected to more than double from $15 billion in 2017 (fiscal 2018) to around 38 billion in 2020 (fiscal 2021). E-commerce currently accounts for around 8% of Walmart’s total revenue (in 2019), but the company has been emphasizing e-commerce growth going forward, in order to remain competitive in the Amazon dominated retail market. We expect this value to go up to 11% in 2020. To add to this, Walmart expects e-commerce sales in 2020 to slow down as compared to 2019, with e-commerce sales rising roughly by 30%, as compared to a 37% growth in 2019. We have created an interactive dashboard on Walmart’s E-commerce Sales which provides a detailed analysis of how to arrive at this growth number.

We Expect Walmart’s E-Commerce Sales To Contribute 11% To Its Total Revenues in 2020

Walmart does not directly disclose its e-commerce figures. We have estimated its 2016 numbers to around $10 billion by adding approximately $2 billion from each quarter, as well as accounting for the acquisition of Jet.com.

From here on Walmart added 44%, 40%, and 37% growth in 2017, 2018, and 2019, respectively, to its online channel.

Walmart’s E-Commerce Sales Will Likely Represent Around 5% of the Total U.S. E-commerce Sales in 2020.

  • Total U.S. retail sales grew 8% from $5.1* trillion in 2017 to $5.5 trillion in 2019.
  • During this period, total e-commerce sales as a percentage of total sales grew from 9% in 2017 to 11% in 2019. This figure is expected to reach 12.3% in 2020, translating into $695 billion of U.S. e-commerce sales.
  • Walmart’s e-commerce sales will likely represent around 5% of the total U.S. e-commerce sales in 2020.

*U.S. Retail data is extracted from U.S. Census Bureau.

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