After Rough Month, Can Western Digital Stock Turn Things Around?

+7.85%
Upside
36.04
Market
38.87
Trefis
WDC: Western Digital logo
WDC
Western Digital

Western Digital Corporation stock (NASDAQ: WDC) is down almost 4% in the past month (21 trading days), largely underperforming the S&P 500 which was up almost 5% over this period. If you look at the change over the last five and ten days, too, the stock has returned -4.6% and -1.1%, underperforming the broader market on both occasions. WDC’s recent stellar Q2 ’22 earnings saw revenue jump to $4.83 billion from $3.94 billion in Q2 ’21 (WDC’s fiscal year ends in June). As cost of sales and other operating expenses rose at a much slower rate, operating margins shot up from 4% to 15% over this period. Despite a rise in the outstanding share count, WDC’s EPS rose strongly from $0.20 in Q2 ’21 to $1.81 in Q2 ’22. Despite this, current geopolitical tensions have dragged down WDC stock, with concerns about whether the company’s earnings growth will sustain.

Now, is WDC stock set to continue its underperformance or could we expect a rally? We believe that there is an average 47% chance of a rise in WDC stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on WDC Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about WDC revenues and comparison to peers, see Western Digital (WDC) Revenue Comparison.

Relevant Articles
  1. Western Digital Stock Set For Bounce After Weak Post-Earnings Performance?
  2. Why Has Western Digital Stock Underperformed The S&P Since 2017?
  3. Western Digital Stock Has Outperformed The S&P Since 2018 Despite A Drop In Sales
  4. Why Has Western Digital Stock Underperformed Despite Revenue Growth?
  5. Forecast Of The Day: Western Digital’s Client Solutions Revenue
  6. Turnaround In Financials To Drive Western Digital Stock Higher

Twenty-One Day: WDC -3.7%, vs. S&P500 4.8%; Underperformed market

(33% likelihood event; 47% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • WDC stock dropped 3.7% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 4.8%
  • A change of -3.7% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 33% likelihood event, which has occurred 826 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
  • Of these 826 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 392 occasions
  • This points to a 47% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: WDC -1.1%, vs. S&P500 1.9%; Underperformed market

(42% likelihood event; 52% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • WDC stock lost 1.1% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.9%
  • A change of -1.1% or more over ten trading days is a 42% likelihood event, which has occurred 1052 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
  • Of these 1052 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 545 occasions
  • This points to a 52% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: WDC -4.6%, vs. S&P500 -0.7%; Underperformed market

(16% likelihood event; 52% probability of rise over next five days)

  • WDC stock dropped 4.6% over a five-day trading period ending 4/1/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) marginal drop of 0.7%
  • A change of -4.6% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 16% likelihood event, which has occurred 396 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
  • Of these 396 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 204 occasions
  • This points to a 52% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Apr 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 WDC Return -1% -24% -27%
 S&P 500 Return 1% -4% 105%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return 2% -5% 272%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 4/4/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

 

Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios

See all Trefis Price Estimates