Western Digital stock (NASDAQ: WDC) is down more than 7% in the past week (five trading days), completely underperforming the S&P 500 which was up just around 0.3%. If you look at the change over the last ten days and one month, too, the stock has returned -0.3% and -1.4%, respectively, thus having underperformed the market on both occasions. Western Digital reported stellar Q1 2022 earnings at the end of October (Western Digital’s fiscal year ends in June), with revenue jumping to $5.05 billion from $3.92 billion in Q1 ’21, driven primarily by a $1 billion rise in sales from the Cloud segment, which rose to as high as $2.23 billion as of Q1 ’22. Additionally, with COGS and other operating expenses strongly in check, operating margins jumped from 1.8% to 15.4%. A drop in the effective tax rate further benefited WDC, driving EPS from -$0.20 to $1.97 over this period. This stellar earnings announcement saw Western Digital stock rise from around $52 in late-October to as high as $60 before mid-November. We believe the drop over the past week was primarily driven by investors booking some profits.
Now, is WDC stock set to drop further or could we expect some rebound? We believe that there is an average 50-50 chance of a rise in WDC stock over the next week and month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on WDC Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about WDC historical returns and comparison to peers, see Western Digital (WDC) Stock Return.
- Why Has Western Digital Stock Underperformed The S&P Since 2017?
- Western Digital Stock Has Outperformed The S&P Since 2018 Despite A Drop In Sales
- After Rough Month, Can Western Digital Stock Turn Things Around?
- Why Has Western Digital Stock Underperformed Despite Revenue Growth?
- Forecast Of The Day: Western Digital’s Client Solutions Revenue
- Turnaround In Financials To Drive Western Digital Stock Higher
Twenty-One Day: WDC -1.4%, vs. S&P500 3.4%; Underperformed market
(43% likelihood event; 49% probability of rise over next 21 days)
- WDC stock dropped 1.4% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 3.4%
- A change of -1.4% or lower over twenty-one trading days is a 43% likelihood event, which has occurred 1071 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
- Of these 1071 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 528 occasions
- This points to a 49% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days
Ten Day: WDC -0.3%, vs. S&P500 0.08%; Underperformed market
(47% likelihood event; 51% probability of rise over next 10 days)
- WDC stock decreased 0.3% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 0.08%
- A change of -0.3% or lower over ten trading days is a 47% likelihood event, which has occurred 1183 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
- Of these 1183 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 608 occasions
- This points to a 51% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days
Five Day: WDC -7.5%, vs. S&P500 0.3%; Underperformed market
(9% likelihood event; 51% probability of rise over next five days)
- WDC stock dropped 7.5% over a five-day trading period ending 11/19/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 0.3%
- A change of -7.5% or lower over five trading days (one week) is a 9% likelihood event, which has occurred 231 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
- Of these 231 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 118 occasions
- This points to a 51% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days
What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since 2016.
Invest with Trefis Market Beating Portfolios
See all Trefis Price Estimates