The stock price of Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC) reached its 52-week high of $78 in June 2021, and has since dropped from that level. Further, the stock fell 5% in the past week, to levels of around $59 currently. Western Digital reported Q4 2021 earnings earlier this month, with revenue coming in at $4.92 billion, up strongly from $4.29 billion in Q4 2020. Gross margins expanded from 25.3% to 31.8% over this period, and operating income rose more than 2.5x to $675 million. Combined with a lower effective tax rate, EPS expanded from $0.49 in Q4 ’20 to $1.97 in Q4 ’21.
However, after a 5% fall in a week, will Western Digital stock continue its downward trajectory over the coming weeks, or is a recovery in the stock imminent? According to the Trefis Machine Learning Engine, which identifies trends in a company’s stock price using ten years of historical data, returns for Western Digital stock average 1.7% in the next one-month (twenty-one trading days) period after experiencing a 4.5% drop over the previous week (five trading days).
But how would these numbers change if you are interested in holding Western Digital stock for a shorter or a longer time period? You can test the answer and many other combinations on the Trefis Machine Learning Engine to test Western Digital stock chances of a rise after a fall. You can test the chance of recovery over different time intervals of a quarter, month, or even just 1 day!
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- Down 7% Last Week, What’s Next For Western Digital Stock?
MACHINE LEARNING ENGINE – try it yourself:
IF Western Digital stock moved by -5% over five trading days, THEN over the next twenty-one trading days Western Digital stock moves an average of 1.7%, with an average 53.9% probability of a positive return over this period.
Some Fun Scenarios, FAQs & Making Sense of Western Digital Stock Movements:
Question 1: Is the average return for Western Digital stock higher after a drop?
Answer: Consider two situations,
Case 1: Western Digital stock drops by 5% or more in a week
Case 2: Western Digital stock rises by 5% or more in a week
Is the average return for Western Digital stock higher over the subsequent month after Case 1 or Case 2?
Western Digital stock fares better after Case 2, with an average return of 1.7% over the next month (21 trading days) under Case 1 (where the stock has just suffered a 5% loss over the previous week), versus, an average return of 2.4% for Case 2.
In comparison, the S&P 500 has an average return of 3.1% over the next 21 trading days under Case 1, and an average return of just 0.5% for Case 2 as detailed in our dashboard that details the average return for the S&P 500 after a fall or rise.
Try the Trefis machine learning engine above to see for yourself how Western Digital stock is likely to behave after any specific gain or loss over a period.
Question 2: Does patience pay?
Answer: If you buy and hold Western Digital stock, the expectation is over time the near-term fluctuations will cancel out, and the long-term positive trend will favor you – at least if the company is otherwise strong.
Overall, according to data and Trefis machine learning engine’s calculations, patience absolutely pays for most stocks!
For Western Digital stock, the returns over the next N days after a -5% change over the last five trading days is detailed in the table below, along with the returns for the S&P500:
You can try the engine to see what this table looks like for Western Digital after a larger loss over the last week, month, or quarter.
Question 3: What about the average return after a rise if you wait for a while?
Answer: The average return after a rise is understandably lower than after a fall as detailed in the previous question. Interestingly, though, if a stock has gained over the last few days, you would do better to avoid short-term bets for most stocks.
It’s pretty powerful to test the trend for yourself for Western Digital stock by changing the inputs in the charts above.
What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market since 2016.