How Big Can Volkswagen Be In The North American Automobile Market By 2025?

by Trefis Team
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Volkswagen AG
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The global automobile market has seen a slowdown over the last couple of years.  The 4 big players in the automobile sector (GM, Ford, Toyota, and Volkswagen) have seen fluctuating volumes in the North American Market over the years. Their consolidated volume sold was 10.12 million units in 2015 which increased to 10.79 million units in 2016. The consolidated volume started falling post that, and reached 9.7 million units in 2019. Over the years GM has maintained the highest sales volume among all the 4 players in the North American market.

Volkswagen (OTCMKTS: VWAGY) despite having one of the largest presence across the globe, is one of the smaller players in the North American Market. Trefis analysis shows that it is set to increase its presence in the North American market to nearly 20% by 2025.

View our interactive dashboard How Much Can Volkswagen’s Market Share Increase In the North American Automobile Market Space? for further details.

Note: 1) We have estimated Volkswagen Q4 2019 numbers as the company is yet to release its results. 2) We have converted the revenue and volume of Toyota to conform with the calendar year for easier comparison.

Current Market Size including Volume and Pricing:

  • The market size is expected to go up from the current level of $327.1 billion by 5.5% to $345 billion in 2025. GM leads the North American market with about $106.4 billion in revenues over 2019, closely followed by Ford at $98.1 billion. Toyota and Volkswagen, who are big players across the globe, posted revenues for 2019 of $75.1 billion and $47.5 billion, respectively, in the North American space.
  • GM leads the North American automobile market with respect to volume sales, with about 3.2 million units sold in 2019, followed by Ford and Toyota both at 2.8 million units. Volkswagen meanwhile sold 958K units in 2019.
  • Volkswagen leads the North American automobile market with respect to pricing, with about $49.6K per vehicle in 2019, followed by Ford and GM at $35.5K and $33.1K per vehicle in 2019. Toyota meanwhile had an average price of $27.1K per vehicle in 2019.

Conclusion:

  • As per our estimation, Volkswagen’s market share (in revenue terms) is likely to see a growth of ~37.7%, from 14.5% in 2019 to 20% by 2025, primarily due to higher volume and better pricing.
  • We further expect Volume sold to reach around 1.3 million units by 2025, as the average price is likely go above $53K per vehicle for Volkswagen to reach revenue of $69 billion in 2025.

 

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