What’s Next For Verisign Inc. Stock After 11% Rise Last Month?

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Trefis
VRSN: Verisign CA logo
VRSN
Verisign CA

Verisign Inc. stock (NASDAQ: VRSN) is up 11% in just one month (21 trading days), outperforming the S&P 500 which was up just under 7%. If you look at the change over the last ten days, too, the stock has returned 11%, thus having strongly outperformed the market, which returned around 1.2%. Verisign reported strong Q3 2021 earnings at the end of October, with revenue rising to $334 million from $318 million in Q3 ’20. The company did a good job at controlling operating expenses, leading to operating income rising from $207 million in Q3 ’20 to $221 million in Q3 ’21. Despite this, a more than 2x rise in the effective tax rate meant that net income, in fact, dropped from $171 million to $157 million over this period.

Now, is Verisign stock set to rise further or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is a decent 66% chance of a rise in Verisign stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on VRSN Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about VRSN historical returns and comparison to peers, see Verisign (VRSN) Stock Return.

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Twenty-One Day: VRSN 11%, vs. S&P500 6.6%; Outperformed market

(7% likelihood event; 66% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • VRSN stock increased 11% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 6.6%
  • A change of 11% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 7% likelihood event, which has occurred 181 times out of 2515 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 181 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 119 occasions
  • This points to a 66% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: VRSN 11%, vs. S&P500 1.2%; Outperformed market

(2% likelihood event; 69% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • VRSN stock increased 11% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.2%
  • A change of 11% or more over ten trading days is a 2% likelihood event, which has occurred 51 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 51 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 35 occasions
  • This points to a 69% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: VRSN 1.1%, vs. S&P500 -0.7%; Outperformed market

(42% likelihood event; 58% probability of rise over next five days)

  • VRSN stock increased 1.1% over a five-day trading period ending 11/11/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) drop of 0.7%
  • A change of 1.1% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 42% likelihood event, which has occurred 1063 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these 1063 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 617 occasions
  • This points to a 58% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

 

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