ViacomCBS stock (NASDAQ: VIAC) increased more than 12% in just the last one week. In the last ten days the rise has been 8% while in the last one month the stock is up 6.6%. The primary reason for the rally in the last one week has been news reports of media giant Comcast considering making a bid for ViacomCBS to shore up its streaming strategy. At the same time, ViacomCBS is making some internal moves to prioritize streaming at Paramount+. If the merger happens any time in the future, in addition to bringing together Peacock and Paramount+, a merger would also potentially combine Universal Pictures and Paramount Pictures, with all the entities having more resources available. While the re-merger of Viacom and CBS did bring some more scale, the company is still dwarfed in front of Comcast. With the market clearly indicating bigger is better when it comes to media companies and streaming, speculation of some kind of deal between Comcast and ViacomCBS has enthused investors.
In comparison to VIAC’s 12% rise, the broader S&P 500 decreased 1.6% over the last one week. When we look at the change over the last one month, VIAC stock has is up 6.6% as against a rise of 2% in the S&P 500. Now, is VIAC stock set to rise further or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is a 61% chance of a rise in VIAC stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on VIAC Chance of Rise for more details.
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Twenty-One Day: VIAC 6.6%, vs. S&P500 2%; Outperformed market
(22% likelihood event; 61% probability of rise over next 21 days)
- ViacomCBS stock increased 6.6% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 2%
- A change of 6.6% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 22% likelihood event, which has occurred 550 times out of 2517 in the last 10 years
- Of these 550 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 337 occasions
- This points to a 61% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days
Ten Day: VIAC 7.9%, vs. S&P500 0.5%; Outperformed market
(10% likelihood event; 67% probability of rise over next 10 days)
- ViacomCBS stock increased 7.9% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 0.5%
- A change of 7.9% or more over ten trading days is a 10% likelihood event, which has occurred 262 times out of 2517 in the last 10 years
- Of these 262 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 175 occasions
- This points to a 67% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days
Five Day: VIAC 12%, vs. S&P500 1.6%; Outperformed market
(Extremely rare event)
- ViacomCBS stock increased 12% over a five-day trading period ending 6/28/2021, compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.6%
- A change of 12% or more over five trading days (one week) is an extremely rare event, which has occurred 46 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
- Of these 46 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 23 occasions
- This points to a 50% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days
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