Can VF Corp Stock Rebound After Falling 20% Over Last Month?

VFC: VF Corporation logo
VFC
VF Corporation

[Note: VFC fiscal year 2022 ended on April 2, 2022]

VF Corporation (NYSE: VFC), is a marketer of branded lifestyle apparel and related products under brands such as Vans, Timberland, and The North Face. The company’s stock has declined by 20% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month) and currently stands at around $28. VFC’s recent fiscal second-quarter results were not great but given market expectations, they were good enough. In Q2 FY23, the company’s revenues were down 4% year-over-year (y-o-y), missing analyst expectations marginally. It should be noted that the entirety of the revenue decline was due to the strong dollar rather than from an actual drop in units or prices. VFC’s overall sales continued to remain soft due to weakness in the Chinese market, where it has a significant presence. However, VFC reported double-digit sales growth in France, Spain, Italy, and Germany this quarter. That’s particularly impressive given how weak the European consumer and economic backdrop is perceived at the moment. The company saw its adjusted gross margin and operating margin decline to 51.5% (-240 basis points y-o-y) and 12.3% (-440 basis points), respectively. There is no doubt that margin pressures have taken their toll on VF’s operations, but this is an industry-wide problem and not only specific to VF Corp. In addition, the company’s adjusted earnings came in line with market expectations at 73 cents in this quarter, down 34% y-o-y.

Now, is VFC stock poised to decline in the short term or are gains looking more likely? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a 70% chance of a rise in VFC stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis of VFC’sStock Chance Of Rise for more details.

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Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of rising’ using the last ten years data

[1] Returns of -0.8% or lower over a five-day period on 845 occasions out of 2516 (34%); Stock rose in the next five days in 479 of these 845 instances (57%)

[2] Returns of -2.9% or lower over a ten-day period on 597 occasions out of 2516 (24%); Stock rose in the next ten days in 294 of these 597 instances (49%)

[3] Returns of -20% or lower over a twenty-one-day period on 20 occasions out of 2516 (<1%); Stock rose in the next twenty-one days in 14 of these 20 instances (70%)

It is helpful to see how its peers stack up. VFC Peers shows how VF corporation stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

With inflation rising and the Fed raising interest rates, VFC has fallen 60% this year. Can it drop more? See how low can VFC stock go by comparing its decline in previous market crashes. Here is a performance summary of all stocks in previous market crashes.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 

Returns Oct 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 VFC Return -6% -60% -34%
 S&P 500 Return 7% -20% 71%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 6% -22% 208%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 10/27/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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