Why Humana’s Stock Had A Strong Run In November

Humana Inc., (NYSE:HUM), a health insurance company based out of U.S., has seen its stock price rally 15% over the last month. The rally was primarily driven by stronger-than-expected Q3 results. The company’s adjusted EPS stood at $5.03 per diluted share, versus the consensus estimate of $4.58. The company has steadily raised its full-year EPS guidance as the year progressed, with the figure going up from $16.63 in Q1 to 17.97 in Q2 to $18.32 in Q3. The current guidance represents an overall earnings growth of 22% in 2019 compared to 2018.

We step back from these recent swings to review Humana’s performance over the last few years, as a context for what might come next. Our Interactive dashboard- Why has Humana’s stock been up by 15% this month? – reviews the near-term reasons and the big picture.


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The context for the last few years:

A closer look At Humana’s Total Revenues over the last few years and the outlook

Total Revenues for Humana moderately increased from $53.8 Bil in 2017 to $56.9 Bil in 2018, an increase of 5.8%.

This compares with Total Revenues growth of:

  • 11.9% in 2015
  • 0.2% in 2016
  • -1.1% in 2017

We expect Total Revenues growth to be 13.8% in 2019. (the revenue growth is on account of growth in Medicare Advantage plans)


A closer look At Humana’s Total Expenses over the last few years and the outlook

Total Expense for Humana increased from $49.7 Bil in 2017 to $54.8 Bil in 2018, an increase of 10.3%.

This compares with Total Expense growth of:

  • 11.9% in 2015
  • 1.9% in 2016
  • -5.8% in 2017

We expect Total Expense growth to be 12.6% in 2019.


How does Humana’s Revenue Growth compare with rivals?

For more information on how Humana’s revenue growth compares with Anthem, Cigna and Centene, view our interactive dashboard analysis.


How has  Humana’s  EBT trended?

EBT for Humana decreased substantially by 48.7% from $4.02 Bil in 2017 to $2.06 Bil in 2018. (Due to higher base of 2017 on account of one time merger termination fee)

We expect EBT to increase 45.4% to $2.99 Bil in 2019.


How has Humana’s Net Income and EPS trended?

For more details about Humana’s Net Income and EPS, view our interactive dashboard analysis


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