What Is The Likelihood Of Twitter’s Stock Rising Post Earnings?

by Trefis Team
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Twitter’s stock (NYSE: TWTR)  has fallen by 1.8% over the last five trading days. In comparison, the broader S&P500 rose by 0.8% over the last five trading days. The company is due to report earnings on Thursday, April 29. The company has beaten consensus estimates for revenue and earnings for three out of the previous four quarters. It is expected to report positive growth in revenue and earnings as a shift toward e-commerce has provided a tailwind to the online advertising segment. Now, is Twitter’s stock poised to grow? We believe that there is a 54% chance of a rise in Twitter’s stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on Twitter’s Stock Chances Of Rise for more details.

Five Days: TWTR -1.8%, vs. S&P500 0.8%; Underperformed market

(34% likelihood event)

  • Twitter stock declined 1.8% over a five day trading period ending 4/26/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 0.8%
  • A change of -2.8% or more over five trading days is a 34% likelihood event, which has occurred 646 times out of 1874 in the last seven years

Ten Days: TWTR -5.8%, vs. S&P500 1.6%; Underperformed market

(22% likelihood event)

  • Twitter stock declined 5.8% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.6%
  • A change of -5.8% or more over ten trading days is a 22% likelihood event, which has occurred 407 times out of 1869 in the last seven years

Twenty-One Days: TWTR 9%, vs. S&P500 7.3%; Outperformed market

(30% likelihood event)

  • Twitter stock rose 9% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) rise of 7.3%
  • A change of 9% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 30% likelihood event, which has occurred 558 times out of 1858 in the last seven years

While Twitter may have moved, it is helpful to see how its peers stack up. Check out Apple Peer Comparisons to see how Apple compares against peers on metrics that matter. You can find more such useful comparisons on Peer Comparisons.

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