Tupperware Brands An Unlikely Winner In Recent Carnage; Time To Invest?

The past week wasn’t great for tech stocks. But there were some companies from other industries that did well. Tupperware Brands (NYSE:TUP) is one of them, posting an impressive 14% gain in a week. What really happened? The most identifiable reason is the continuation of the momentum that began about two weeks ago. But is that justified? Should you start considering investing in Tupperware Brands? We believe that while near term momentum could continue, a longer-term investment is not a sure bet.

We arrive at our conclusion by assessing Tupperware’s recent market movement from two perspectives:

1. Underlying financial trends, and
2. The output of the Trefis machine learning engine which looks at past patterns to predict near term behavior.

Our dashboard Big Movers: Tupperware Brands Corporation Moved 17% – What Next? lays this out.

What fundamentals suggest: Want to consider long term investment in Tupperware? Then pay attention here.

Tupperware’s recent market move is at odds with its long term price trend. Its stock has fallen 57% between 2017 and now, despite a significant rise this year. So what do the underlying financials say? Tupperware Brands’ revenue has decreased -20.3% from $2,256 Mil in 2017 to $1,798 Mil in 2019. For the last 12 months, this figure stood at $1,609 Mil, implying another decrease of -10.5% over 2019 numbers. In addition, the company has consistently struggled with its net margins which stood at merely 0.7% in 2019 and have turned negative in the last 12 months. Clearly, the trend in financials is not very encouraging, which suggests that the recent stock move should be taken with a pinch of salt.

What machine learning algorithm suggests: More interested in short term returns? Then you might want to give this perspective more weight.

Our AI engine analyzes past patterns in stock movements to predict near term behavior for a given level of movement in the recent period and suggests a significant 50% probability of Tupperware jumping another 10% over the next 21 trading days. Our detailed dashboard highlights the chances of Tupperware’s move after a rise or a fall and should help you understand near-term return probabilities for different levels of movements.

Taking both perspectives together, Tupperware does not seem to be a sure bet right now. But, what if you could invest in a winner portfolio and diversify your risk? Here’s a top-quality portfolio to outperform the market, with over 100% return since 2016, versus 55% for the S&P 500. Comprised of companies with strong revenue growth, healthy profits, lots of cash, and low risk, it has outperformed the broader market year after year, consistently.

See all Trefis Price Estimates and Download Trefis Data here

What’s behind Trefis? See How It’s Powering New Collaboration and What-Ifs For CFOs and Finance Teams | Product, R&D, and Marketing Teams