Take-Two Interactive stock (NASDAQ: TTWO) has seen a 15% fall in a month, largely in line with the broader S&P500 index, down 13%. The fall for Take-Two Interactive, in particular, can be attributed to a Grand Theft Auto VI hack. A hacker uploaded 90 videos from a test build of the game online, and Rockstar Studios – the game’s publisher – confirmed the leak to be real.  Furthermore, higher inflation means people may spend less on gaming and more on necessities. This factor will likely weigh on the overall gaming industry in the near term. A weakness in broader markets owing to rising interest rates, a strengthening dollar, and fears of a recession isn’t helping either.
Now that TTWO stock has seen a fall of 15% in a month, will it continue its downward trajectory, or is a rise imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a good chance of an increase in TTWO stock over the next month. A move of -15% or more in a month for TTWO has occurred 48 times in the past ten years. Of those instances, 37 resulted in Take-Two Interactive stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 37 of 48 or a 77% chance of a rise in TTWO stock over the next month. See our analysis of Take-Two Interactive Stock Chance of Rise for more details.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using the last ten years’ data
- After moving -15% or more over five days, the stock rose on 71% of the occasions in the next five days.
- After moving -18% or more over ten days, the stock rose on 50% of the occasions in the next ten days.
- After moving -15% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose on 77% of the occasions in the next twenty-one days.
This pattern suggests an equal chance of a rise or a fall in TTWO stock over the next ten days but a good chance of an increase over the next five days and next month.
Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers
- Five-Day Return: DOX highest at 3.0%; TTWO lowest at -14.7%
- Ten-Day Return: DOX highest at -0.9%; TTWO lowest at -17.6%
- Twenty-One Day Return: DOX highest at -4.4%; TTWO lowest at -15.0%
While TTWO stock looks like it can see higher levels, it is helpful to see how Take-Two Interactive’s Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.
With higher inflation and rising interest rates, among other factors, TTWO stock has seen a fall of 38% this year. Can it drop more? See how low Take-Two Interactive stock can go by comparing its decline in previous market crashes. Here is a performance summary of all stocks in previous market crashes.
Furthermore, the Covid-19 crisis has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised by how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Take-Two Interactive vs. Avago Technologies.
|S&P 500 Return||-8%||-23%||63%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||-12%||-26%||193%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 9/27/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016
- Massive ‘Grand Theft Auto VI’ leak shows off early gameplay footage, Engadget, Sep 18, 2022 [↩]