What Could Spark the Tesla Stock’s Next Big Move

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Trefis
TSLA: Tesla logo
TSLA
Tesla

TSLA has shown remarkable surges, with over 30% rallies in under two months occurring 18 times, notably in 2013 and 2024. Several instances also saw gains exceeding 50% within similar periods, highlighting Tesla’s potential for rapid price acceleration. If patterns hold, upcoming catalysts might drive TSLA stock to substantial new highs, offering significant opportunities for investors.

Triggers That Could Boost The Stock“`html

  • Robotaxi Network
    Austin Robotaxi launched June 2025, $4.20/trip. Cybercab production Q2 2026. FSD faces Q3 revenue decline.
  • Optimus Robotics
    V2 production mid-2025 (10k units/month), external delivery late 2026, $10T potential. 2025 production is behind schedule.
  • Energy Storage Growth
    Q3 2025 record 12.5 GWh deployed (+81% YoY), 31.4% gross margin. Tariffs impacted Q3 by >$400M.

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How Do Financials Look Right Now

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It certainly helps if the fundamentals check out. For details on TSLA Read Buy or Sell TSLA Stock. Below are a few numbers that matter.

  • Revenue Growth: -1.6% LTM and 9.3% last 3-year average.
  • Cash Generation: Nearly 7.1% free cash flow margin and 5.1% operating margin LTM.
  • Valuation: Tesla stock trades at a P/E multiple of 293.2
  • Opportunity vs S&P: Compared to S&P, you get higher valuation, higher 3 year average revenue growth, and lower margins

  TSLA S&P Median
Sector Consumer Discretionary
Industry Automobile Manufacturers
PE Ratio 293.2 23.6

   
LTM* Revenue Growth -1.6% 5.4%
3Y Average Annual Revenue Growth 9.3% 5.3%

   
LTM* Operating Margin 5.1% 18.7%
3Y Average Operating Margin 8.3% 18.0%
LTM* Free Cash Flow Margin 7.1% 13.1%

*LTM: Last Twelve Months

But How Does The Stock Do In Bad Times?

Looking at Tesla’s past market dips helps put its risk in perspective. The 2018 correction wiped about 53.5% off its peak, while the Covid pandemic saw an even steeper drop of 60.6%. The inflation shock hit the hardest with a 73.6% fall from top to bottom. Even with strong fundamentals and hype around the name, Tesla hasn’t been immune to big sell-offs during tough market times. It’s a reminder that no stock, no matter how popular, is fully shielded from major downturns.

But the risk is not limited to major market crashes. Stocks fall even when markets are good – think events like earnings, business updates, and outlook changes. Read TSLA Dip Buyer Analyses to see how the stock has recovered from sharp dips in the past.

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