Tesla stock (NASDAQ:TSLA) has gained almost 9% over the past month, outperforming the broader S&P 500 which rose about 6% over the same period. There are a couple of factors driving the recent rally. Firstly, Tesla posted a better-than-expected set of Q2 2022 results last month, despite a tough operating environment that saw the company temporarily suspend manufacturing in China while also contending with continued supply chain headwinds. Total revenues for Q2 grew by 42% compared to last year, to $16.9 billion, while adjusted earnings came in at $2.27 per share, up 57% vs. last year. Tesla also intends to split its stock three for one on August 24, marking its second stock split in less than two years, and this is also likely driving the stock a bit higher. Although stock splits don’t change the fundamental picture of a company, they typically signal that management is positive about the future and also make the stock more accessible for retail investors.
However, now that Tesla stock has seen a gain of about 9% over the last month, will it continue its upward trajectory in the near term, or is a decline imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a 62% chance of a rise in TSLA stock over the next month. Out of 866 instances in the last ten years that Tesla stock saw a twenty-one-day rise of 9% or more, 536 of them resulted in the stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 536 out of 866, or a 62% chance of a rise in TSLA stock over the coming month, implying a positive near-term outlook for the stock. See our analysis on Tesla Stock Chance of A Rise for more details.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of Rise’ using last ten years data
- After moving -1% or more over five days, the stock rose in the next five days on 43% of the occasions.
- After moving 3% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 58% of the occasions
- After moving 9% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 62% of the occasions.
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|S&P 500 Return||1%||-12%||86%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||2%||-12%||247%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 8/20/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016