Forecast Of The Day: Tesla Luxury Vehicle Deliveries

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What?

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) Luxury Vehicle Deliveries – which includes its Model S and X deliveries – declined from around 67,000 in 2019 to about 57,000 in 2020. Trefis expects the metric to fall further to about 30,000 units in 2021 although it should recover to about 51,000 units next year.

Why?

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Demand for the Model S and X declined over 2019 and 2020 as Tesla prepped the vehicles for a meaningful design refresh in 2021. Production of the redesigned vehicles began ramping up in Q2 2021 and we should see sales improve from 2022.

So What?

The Model S and X are no longer major drivers of Tesla’s deliveries. We estimate that they will together account for under 5% of Tesla’s deliveries next year.

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 Returns Dec 2021
MTD [1]
2021
YTD [1]
2017-21
Total [2]
 TSLA Return -2% 42% 2249%
 S&P 500 Return 0% 24% 109%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return 0% 44% 288%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 12/10/2021
[2] Cumulative total returns since 2017

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