How Do Tesla’s Deliveries Compare With Audi, BMW & Mercedes?

by Trefis Team
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Tesla stock’s (NASDAQ:TSLA) market cap recently crossed the $1.1 trillion mark, valuing the company at about four times German luxury car players BMW, Daimler, and VW Group combined. However, Tesla only delivered a small fraction of the vehicles compared to these players. So how does Tesla’s delivery performance, growth, and average selling prices stack up versus its peers? See our dashboard analysis How Tesla’s Deliveries Compare With Audi, BMW, & Mercedes for more details. Parts of the analysis are summarized below.

Model 3 and Y deliveries stood at about 443k units in 2020, about a fifth of Mercedes and BMW’s deliveries, and a little less than half of Audi’s deliveries. However, Tesla’s deliveries have been growing much faster, with sales rising at a compounded rate of more than 50% over the last two years, compared to German rivals who’ve seen deliveries remain largely flat or decline. If Tesla maintains its growth rate (the company is confident that it will) its annual deliveries will approach BMW and Mercedes by around 2024. Although Tesla doesn’t break out average pricing for its models, we estimate that the Model 3 and Y average selling prices stand at about $50,000 currently, compared to about $46,000 for Mercedes and about $40,000 for BMW (including Mini).

Coming to the super-premium segment, deliveries of Tesla’s Model S and X have been on the downtrend in recent years, declining from around 100,000 units in 2018 to just about 57,000 units in 2020, partly due to the company’s move to refresh the aging models. In comparison, Porsche and Bentley, the VW group’s super-premium brands, have seen deliveries rise fairly consistently to about 264,000 units in 2020. Model S & X Average Selling Price are likely to be roughly in line with VW’s Porsche and Bentley brands, per our estimates, at levels of a little over $95,000 per our estimates.

Tesla has a solid edge over its rivals in terms of self-driving tech and battery costs. See our dashboard analyses on Just How Far Ahead Is Tesla In The Self-Driving Race? and A Closer Look At Tesla’s Battery Costs for more details.

[8/28/2019] How Tesla’s Deliveries Compare With Luxury Rivals Audi, BMW, Mercedes

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) has significantly scaled up its production over the last few years, driven by the Model 3. In this analysis, we take a closer look at Tesla’s total deliveries and compare them with other rivals in the luxury market.

View our interactive dashboard analysis How Tesla’s Deliveries Compare With Audi, BMW, & Mercedes

Model 3 Deliveries Were 1.5x Model S & X Deliveries IN 2018; Look Set To Rise To Over 3x In 2019

  • While Model 3 deliveries were a fraction of Model X + S deliveries in 2017, they grew to about 1.5x Model X + S deliveries in 2018 and we expect them to come in at over 3x Model S and X deliveries in 2019.

In The Super-Premium Segment, Tesla Model S & X Deliveries Have Grown Faster Than Porsche & Bentley Although They Have Cooled Off Recently

  • While Tesla Model S&X deliveries grew 3x between 2014 and 2017 (32k to 101k units), they declined to 99k units in 2018 and could fall further in 2019, due to saturation in the premium end of the market and potentially due to some cannibalization from the Model 3.
  • In comparison, Porsche and Bentley’s deliveries have scaled from 173k units in 2014 to 243k units in 2018.

Model S&X Average Selling Price

  • Tesla Model S & X average selling prices stood at $96k in 2018, compared to about $97k for Porsche and Bentley.

 

Model 3 Deliveries Stood At Under 150k Units In 2018, Versus 2 Million + For Mercedes And BMW

  • Model 3 deliveries are significantly lower compared to German luxury brands, although they are expected to almost double in 2019.
  • While Tesla delivered 145k Model 3s in 2018, luxury market leader Mercedes delivered 2.4 million vehicles, with BMW delivering 2.1 million.

Model 3 Average Selling Price

  • Model 3 average selling prices are higher compared to Audi, BMW, and Mercedes, as Tesla has emphasized premium versions of the car at launch.
  • We estimate that Model 3 ASPs stood at about $56k in 2018, compared to $42k for Mercedes, $34k for BMW (including Mini and Rolls Royce), and $43k for Audi.

Tesla Deliveries As % Of BMW, Audi, Mercedes, Porsche Combined Increased from 0.6% To 4% Between 2014 And 2018

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 Returns Dec 2021
MTD [1]
2021
YTD [1]
2017-21
Total [2]
 TSLA Return -6% 61% 2564%
 S&P 500 Return 0% 23% 106%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return 0% 44% 292%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 12/1/2021
[2] Cumulative total returns since 2017

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