A Look At Some Of The Trends That Drove Tesla’s Strong Q2 Deliveries

by Trefis Team
Tesla Motors
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Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) posted record deliveries of about 95,200 vehicles in Q2 2019, beating its previous record by about 4,000 units. This puts the company’s year-to-date deliveries at ~158k. For perspective, Tesla previously guided 360k to 400k units for 2019. The increase was driven primarily by the Model 3, which saw deliveries soar 40% sequentially, and by almost 300% YoY. While the Model X and S saw a sequential improvement, deliveries were down on a year-over-year basis. Below we take a look at some of the trends that likely drove deliveries and how the strong deliveries could impact Tesla’s quarterly earnings, which are likely to be published toward the end of this month.

View our interactive dashboard analysis on What Drove Tesla’s Strong Q2 Delivery Numbers? In addition, you can also view Trefis Consumer Discretionary company data.

What Drove Tesla’s 3, X, and S Deliveries In Q2 2019?

  • The availability of lower variants of the Model 3, as well as a ramp-up in international markets such as China and the E.U., are likely to have driven Model 3 deliveries over the quarter.
  • Moreover, as the federal tax incentives on Tesla vehicles dropped from $3,750 to $1,875 starting from July 1, this is also likely to have helped to drive sales in Q2.

  • Model S & X deliveries improved to 17,650 units sequentially, although sales were down YoY.
  • The QoQ improvement was likely driven by a slightly lower base price and the introduction of an upgraded drive train and suspension setup on these vehicles.
  • The YoY decline is likely due to cooling demand for premium vehicles and potential cannibalization from the Model 3.

Automotive Revenues Could Trend Higher Sequentially, But ASPs Could Decline

  • We estimate that the Average selling price for Tesla vehicles could trend to about $57k in Q2, driven by a higher mix of Model 3s vs premium vehicles and the availability of lower-end Model 3 variants.

Estimating Tesla’s Total Revenues

We estimate that Tesla’s total revenues will grow sequentially to about $6.5 billion.


We Expect Tesla To Remain In The Red Over Q2

  • We expect Tesla to remain in the red over Q2 on account of a higher-mix of Model 3s, which have lower margins and potential costs associated with its scale-up of production and deliveries.
  • That said, losses could narrow on a sequential basis.


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