Target’s stock (NYSE: TGT), the second-largest discount chain in the U.S., has declined 3% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month) and currently stands near $231. It should be noted that the broader S&P500 returned an almost flat growth during the same period. The retailer saw a strong third-quarter performance despite facing challenges with supply chain issues, shortages in labor, difficult year-over-year comparison to 2020, and resurgence of Covid variants. In Q3, the retailer’s comparable sales increased 12.7% on top of the 20.7% gain accomplished in 2020 – still beating the consensus expectation of +8.3%. Target pointed to continued strength in-store sales, same-day digital fulfillment services, and double-digit growth in all five of its core merchandising categories. That said, Target’s stock is down since the Q3 earnings announcement despite this recent outperformance.
Now, is TGT stock poised to decline further in the short term? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a 57% chance of a rise in TGT stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis on Target’s Stock Chance Of Rise for more details. We believe that Target’s hefty inventory build for the holidays and its omnichannel capabilities should help it achieve another strong fourth-quarter going forward.
If you are considering TGT stock as an investment option over a longer time frame, you can explore our forecast for Target’s Valuation dashboard.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of rising’ using last 10 year data
 Returns of -0.5% or lower over five-day period in 765 times out of 2516 (30%); Stock rose in the next five days in 428 of these 765 instances (56%)
 Returns of 3% or higher over ten-day period in 692 times out of 2516 (28%); Stock rose in the next ten days in 408 of these 692 instances (59%)
 Returns of -2.9% or lower over twenty-one-day period in 603 times out of 2515 (24%); Stock rose in the next twenty-one days in 345 of these 603 instances (57%)
Also, Target Peer Comparisons summarizes how the company fares against peers on metrics that matter.
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|S&P 500 Return||-1%||-1%||110%|
|Trefis MS Portfolio Return||-6%||-6%||271%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/9/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016