Synchrony Financial Stock Lost 10% In One Week, What To Expect Next?

SYF: Synchrony Financial logo
SYF
Synchrony Financial

Synchrony Financial stock (NYSE: SYF) has lost 10% in the last week, underperforming the S&P 500 (up 0.5%). Further, the same trend was observed over the last ten days (-11% vs -3.5%) and one month period (-12% vs -8.6%). 

SYF, a premier consumer financial services company, outperformed the consensus estimates in the first-quarter results. It was because of a 17% rise in the purchase volume and a 10% growth in the new accounts. Also, the net interest income improved 10% y-o-y in the quarter. The recent stock decline was due to a record high inflation figure, aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and geopolitical tensions, which are feared by investors to hurt consumer spending levels. Further, the current scenario is likely to increase the credit risk, leading to an increase in the provisions of credit losses.

Now, is Synchrony Financial stock set to drop further, or could we expect some improvement? We believe that there is a 75% chance of a rise in Synchrony Financial stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last eight years. See our analysis on Synchrony Financial Stock Chance of Rise.

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Twenty-One Day: SYF -12%, vs. S&P500 -8.6%; Underperformed market

(6% likelihood event; 75% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • Synchrony Financial stock lost 12% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 8.6%
  • A change of -12% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 6% likelihood event, which has occurred 119 times out of 1941 in the last eight years
  • Of these 119 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 89 occasions
  • This points to a 75% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: SYF -11%, vs. S&P500 -3.5%; Underperformed market

(4% likelihood event; 51% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • Synchrony Financial stock decreased 11% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) loss of 3.5%
  • A change of -11% or more over ten trading days is a 4% likelihood event, which has occurred 78 times out of 1952 in the last eight years
  • Of these 78 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days 40 occasions
  • This points to a 51% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: SYF-10%, vs. S&P500 0.5%; Underperformed market

(3% likelihood event; 51% probability of rise over next five days)

  • Synchrony Financial stock lost 10% over a five-day trading period ending 05/16/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) increase of 0.5%
  • A change of -10% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 3% likelihood event, which has occurred 53 times out of 1957 in the last eight years
  • Of these 53 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 27 occasions
  • This points to a 51% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns May 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 SYF Return -10% -29% -9%
 S&P 500 Return -3% -16% 79%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio -6% -22% 208%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 5/17/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

 

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