Can Seagate Technology Stock Bounce Back After A Dismal Post-Earnings Performance?

+52.99%
Upside
52.20
Market
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Trefis
STX: Seagate Technology logo
STX
Seagate Technology

Seagate Technology Holdings stock (NASDAQ: STX) is down 11% in the past month (twenty-one trading days), performing much worse than the S&P 500, which was up 1.2% over this period. Additionally, if you look at the change over the last week and ten days, too, the stock has returned -5.5% and -4.5%, performing much worse than the broader markets on both occasions. Seagate announced Q1 ’23 earnings last week, with revenue around $2.04 billion, much lower than $3.12 billion in Q1 ’22. With operating expenses dropping at a slower rate than revenues, operating income dropped from $586 million to $107 million over this period. Despite a drop in the effective tax rate and outstanding share count, net income dropped and EPS came in lower at $0.14, compared to $2.33 for the same period last year.

Now, is STX stock set to continue its underperformance or could we expect a bounce back? We believe that there is a decent 57% chance of a rise in STX stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on STX Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see Seagate Technology (STX) Stock Return. 

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Twenty-One Day: STX -11%, vs. S&P500 1.2%; Underperformed market

(13% likelihood event; 57% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • STX stock dropped 11% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 1.2%
  • A change of -11% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 13% likelihood event, which has occurred 317 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 317 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 180 occasions
  • This points to a 57% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: STX -4.5%, vs. S&P500 3.8%; Underperformed market

(21% likelihood event; 52% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • STX stock dropped 4.5% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 3.8%
  • A change of -4.5% or more over ten trading days is a 21% likelihood event, which has occurred 528 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 528 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 273 occasions
  • This points to a 52% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: STX -5.5%, vs. S&P500 0.1%; Underperformed market

(14% likelihood event; 58% probability of rise over next five days)

  • STX stock lost 5.5% over a five-day trading period ending 11/1/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was up a marginal 0.1% over this period.
  • A change of -5.5% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 14% likelihood event, which has occurred 361 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 361 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 209 occasions
  • This points to a 58% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Nov 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 STX Return 0% -56% 30%
 S&P 500 Return -3% -21% 68%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio -3% -24% 199%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 11/2/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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