What To Expect From State Street Stock?

State Street stock (NYSE: STT) has declined 3.8% in the last week, underperforming the S&P 500 (up 3.8%). Further, the stock lost more than the broader markets over the last ten days (16% vs 1.8%) and the one month (11% vs 2.7%). The recent stock market turmoil was due to the recently released inflation figures, the expectation of higher than anticipated interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, and the tensions between Ukraine and Russia.

The custody banking giant recently released its fourth-quarter results, outperforming the street expectations for revenues and earnings. It reported a 5% y-o-y increase in total revenues to $3.05 billion. This was driven by a 4% y-o-y growth in the fees income, partially offset by a 3% drop in the net interest income (NII). The fee income benefited from a 6% rise in the servicing fees coupled with an 8% increase in the management fees. While the servicing fee is dependent on Assets under Custody & Administration (AuC/A), the management fee is hooked to Assets under Management (AuM). Notably, AuC/A increased 13% y-o-y to $43.7 trillion in the quarter, followed by a 19% jump in the AuM to $4.14 trillion. Overall, this led to a net income of $697 million – up 30% y-o-y. Further, the bank’s top-line improved 3% y-o-y to $12 billion in FY2021. This was because of a 5% rise in the total fee income, partially offset by a 13% drop in the net interest income.

Now, is STT stock set to drop further, or could we expect some recovery? We believe that there is a 68% chance of a rise in State Street stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on State Street Stock Chance of Rise. 

Additionally, if you are considering State Street’s stock as an investment option over a larger time frame, you can explore our forecast for State Street’s valuation.

Twenty-One Day: STT -11%, vs. S&P500 -2.7%; Underperformed market

(6% likelihood event; 68% probability of rise over next 21 days)

• State Street stock lost 11% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) decline of 2.7%
• A change of -11% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 6% likelihood event, which has occurred 157 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
• Of these 157 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 106 occasions
• This points to a 68% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: STT -16%, vs. S&P500 -1.8%; Underperformed market

(1% likelihood event; 65% probability of rise over next 10 days)

• State Street stock decreased 16% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) drop of 1.8%
• A change of -16% or more over ten trading days is a 1% likelihood event, which has occurred 26 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
• Of these 26 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 17 occasions
• This points to a 65% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: STT -3.8%, vs. S&P500 3.8%; Underperformed market

(12% likelihood event; 57% probability of rise over next five days)

• State Street stock lost 3.8% over a five-day trading period ending 03/02/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) gain of 3.8%
• A change of -3.8% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 12% likelihood event, which has occurred 309 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
• Of these 309 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 176 occasions
• This points to a 57% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 3/3/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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