Which Stocks Are Paying For $4.33 Gas?
Inflation is back. Consumer prices are rising 3.7% a year, a gallon of gas costs $4.33 against $3.06 a year ago, and oil is above $100 a barrel. Yet the S&P 500 is up 12.3% this year. So who is actually paying for it?
Ask a Nike shareholder. Nike is down 40% this year. McDonald’s, down 19%. Tesla, down 18%. Capital One, down 17%. Homebuilders, down 11%.
Same market. Two very different years.
Here’s what changed. On March 6, US oil crossed $90 a barrel, up from $60 in January. Energy prices are up 20% in a year. Four forces are pushing prices up at once, war, immigration, taxes and an AI spending race. The practical question is where it hurts.
Two markets since oil crossed $90
| Since March 6, 2026 | Change |
|---|---|
| Semiconductors (SMH) | +44% |
| Technology (XLK) | +36% |
| Energy (XLE) | +22% |
| S&P 500 (SPY) | +15% |
| Consumer discretionary (XLY) | 0% |
| Utilities (XLU) | −10% |
| Homebuilders (ITB) | −13% |
| Gold (GLD) | −20% |
Notice two surprises. Gold, the classic inflation hedge, is down 20%. And tech, one of the groups that fell hardest the last time inflation spiked, is leading. That second one is the risk to watch, and we come back to it below.
[1] The first victims: the shopper
When gas jumps that much, something else in the budget gives. It’s usually the things people want rather than need.
Nike: down 40% this year. Pricey sneakers are easy to postpone, and Nike says its shoppers are under pressure. But its 4% sales drop last quarter is led by China, down 26%; North America still grew 2%. So most of Nike’s slide is its own story, not inflation’s. Costco sells to the same squeezed shopper, and its sales are still growing.
McDonald’s: down 19%, all of it since oil crossed $90. Even value meals can feel it if lower-income customers cut back, though so far its sales are still up 4%.
Home Depot: down 8%. Remodels can wait when money is tight and mortgages cost 7.4%.
Starbucks: up 18% this year, but flat since oil crossed $90. We think the pricey latte is the next test.
Not every fallen consumer name is an inflation story. Tesla is down 18% this year, but that isn’t families skipping cars: its sales rose 25% last quarter, and GM is up 10% since oil crossed $90. What shrank is Tesla’s margin, to 1.4% from 4.1%.
[2] The second wave: anything that runs on borrowed money
Inflation’s second punch is interest rates. The 10-year Treasury yield is 5.1%, just off the 24-year high of 5.3% it hit on Oct 5, and a 30-year mortgage costs 7.40%.
Homebuilders: down 11% this year (ITB), with D.R. Horton down 5%. Every point on a mortgage rate prices families out.
Lenders to consumers: Capital One is down 17% this year, all of it before oil crossed $90. Card delinquencies are still edging down, so this is where to watch for the squeeze, not where it has shown up.
Utilities: down 10% since March. They borrow heavily, and a 5% Treasury pays more than their 2.9% dividends. (Constellation Energy, down 25% this year, doesn’t fit that story: it yields 0.6% and carries little debt.)
[3] The winners, so far: whoever sells the scarce stuff
Oil: Exxon up 51%, Chevron up 51% this year. From Jan 3 to Oct 12, 2022, Exxon rose 60% while the S&P 500 fell 25%.
Metals: Nucor up 61%, Freeport-McMoRan up 39%. Steel and copper are what AI data centers and power lines are made of, and copper costs 39% more than a year ago. Nucor’s sales are up 23%; Freeport’s haven’t caught up yet.
Pricing power: Coca-Cola up 36%. A brand people buy anyway can pass on higher costs.
[4] The risk to watch: the AI giants
Here’s the uncomfortable part. Tech is up 29% this year. Nvidia is up 17%, Microsoft 11%, Apple 26%. The ten largest companies now make up 40% of the S&P 500’s value.
In 2022, the last time inflation forced the Fed into a run of rate hikes, these stocks fell harder than the market:
| Stock | Jan 3 – Oct 12, 2022 | This year |
|---|---|---|
| Nvidia | −62% | +17% |
| Meta | −62% | +7% |
| Amazon | −34% | +14% |
| Alphabet | −33% | +10% |
| Microsoft | −32% | +11% |
| S&P 500 (price index) | −25% | +12% |
| Exxon (for contrast) | +60% | +51% |
Why did they fall so hard then? Their value rests on profits years away, and higher rates make future profits worth less today. That math hasn’t changed. What’s different now is that these companies are still pouring money into AI. Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Meta alone spent $511 billion on capital projects, AI and everything else, in the twelve months to June 30, 2026. That’s 77% of the cash their businesses generate.
If inflation spreads beyond energy and the Fed has to push harder, the index doesn’t fall because of Nike. It falls because of the giants. To see how far key stocks fell in past sell-offs, look at How Low Can Stocks Go During A Market Crash.
The verdict: inflation looks to have picked its first victims. The question is whether it reaches the giants.
The shopper and the borrower are paying now. Oil, metals and pricing-power brands are gaining. The index looks fine mostly because tech is carrying it: tech stocks are up 29% this year and chip stocks 52%. Those same groups fell 33% and 44% the last time inflation forced the Fed into a run of rate hikes. Watch core inflation, now 2.6%. If it climbs while energy stays high, the market that’s still rising will catch up with the one that’s already falling.
If the giants do crack, a portfolio built for only one outcome gets hurt. Here’s how to invest for a crash and a rally.
What Does This Mean For Your Portfolio?
Look at your five largest holdings and sort them into three buckets: what inflation is already hurting, what it’s helping, and what would fall hardest if rates rise again. If most of your money sits in the third bucket, that’s worth knowing before the next inflation report, not after.
Knowing is the easy part. Deciding what to trim and what to own instead is a job for a disciplined plan, not a guess made on a bad day in the market.
There is a smarter approach. Since its inception, the Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio has returned 105%, beating the benchmark that combines the three major indices – the S&P 500, S&P Mid-cap, and Russell 2000. And it did so without taking the concentrated risk that comes with do-it-yourself stock picking. If that is how you want to invest, the HQ Portfolio is the place to start.