Up Almost 1.5X Last Month, Can SunPower Stock Extend Its Streak?

-19.19%
Downside
22.62
Market
18.28
Trefis
SPWR: Sunpower logo
SPWR
Sunpower

SunPower Corporation (NASDAQ: SPWR) is up almost 50% in the past month, outperforming the S&P 500 which was up 7% over this period. If you look at the change over the last week and ten days, too, the stock has returned 3.7% and 30%, performing much better than the broader markets on both occasions. SunPower’s most recent Q3 ’22 earnings, saw revenue rising from $283 million in Q3 ’21 to $476 million in Q3 ’22. However, with rising operating costs, the company reported lower operating income of $12 million, down from $17 million for Q3 ’21. Despite this, a jump in other income spurred a growth in the company’s net earnings, and EPS came in higher at $0.80, compared to -$0.49 in Q3 ’21.

Now, is SunPower stock set to continue its outperformance or could we expect a pullback? We believe that there is an average 52% chance of a rise in SPWR stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on SPWR Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about the company’s historical returns and comparison to peers, see SunPower (SPWR) Stock Return

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Twenty-One Day: SPWR 49%, vs. S&P500 7%; Outperformed market

(3% likelihood event; 52% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • SPWR stock gained 49% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 7%
  • A change of 49% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 3% likelihood event, which has occurred 82 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 82 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 43 occasions
  • This points to a 52% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: SPWR 30%, vs. S&P500 6.3%; Outperformed market

(4% likelihood event; 40% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • SPWR stock gained 30% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) rise of 6.3%
  • A change of 30% or more over ten trading days is a 4% likelihood event, which has occurred 89 times out of 2518 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 89 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 36 occasions
  • This points to a 40% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: SPWR 3.7%, vs. S&P500 -0.1%; Outperformed market

(30% likelihood event; 49% probability of rise over next five days)

  • SPWR stock rose 3.7% over a five-day trading period ending 11/16/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which was down a marginal 0.1% over this period.
  • A change of 3.7% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 30% likelihood event, which has occurred 748 times out of 2517 in the last 10 years
  • Of these 748 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 367 occasions
  • This points to a 49% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Nov 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 SPWR Return 29% 14% 337%
 S&P 500 Return 2% -17% 76%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio 3% -20% 218%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 11/17/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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