After Weak Month, Could SunPower Stock Make A Comeback?

+57.92%
Upside
17.92
Market
28.30
Trefis
SPWR: Sunpower logo
SPWR
Sunpower

SunPower Corporation stock (NASDAQ: SPWR) is down 13% in the past month (21 trading days), underperforming the S&P 500 which was roughly unchanged over this period. If you look at the change over the last five days, too, the stock has returned -5.7%, underperforming the broader market again. SunPower had reported mixed Q3 ’21 earnings in early November, with revenue rising from $275 million in Q3 ’20 to $324 million in Q3 ’21. Further, COGS and operating expenses rose at a slower rate and operating income came in at $6.2 million for Q3 ’21, up from an operating loss of $2.1 million in Q3 ’20. However, a rise in non-operating expenses meant that the company reported a net loss for the period of $84 million, and EPS came in at -$0.49, down from $0.26 for the same period last year. Combined with the threat of rising interest rates in the near future, the stock shed almost 15% over the past month.

Now, is SunPower stock set to continue its underperformance or could we expect a rally? We believe that there is a low 47% chance of a rise in SunPower stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on SPWR Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about SPWR historical returns and comparison to peers, see SunPower (SPWR) Stock Return. Additionally, for details about SPWR revenues and comparison to peers, see SunPower (SPWR) Revenue Comparison.

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Twenty-One Day: SPWR -13%, vs. S&P500 -0.2%; Underperformed market

(20% likelihood event; 47% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • SPWR stock dropped 13% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) marginal drop of 0.2%
  • A change of -13% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 20% likelihood event, which has occurred 502 times out of 2515 in the last ten years
  • Of these 502 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 235 occasions
  • This points to a 47% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: SPWR -0.8%, vs. S&P500 -1.5%; Outperformed market

(47% likelihood event; 51% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • SPWR stock dropped a marginal 0.8% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 1.5%
  • A change of -0.8% or more over ten trading days is a 47% likelihood event, which has occurred 1175 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
  • Of these 1175 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 604 occasions
  • This points to a 51% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: SPWR -5.7%, vs. S&P500 -1.6%; Underperformed market

(21% likelihood event; 54% probability of rise over next five days)

  • SPWR stock dropped 5.7% over a five-day trading period ending 1/11/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) drop of 1.6%
  • A change of -5.7% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 21% likelihood event, which has occurred 517 times out of 2517 in the last ten years
  • Of these 517 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 280 occasions
  • This points to a 54% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

 

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Jan 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 SPWR Return -1% -1% 280%
 S&P 500 Return -2% -2% 109%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return -5% -5% 273%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/12/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

 

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