What’s Next For Shopify Stock After 8% Rise Last Week?

by Trefis Team
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Shopify stock (NYSE: SHOP) gained about 8% over the last week (five trading days), outperforming the S&P 500 which remains up by about 3% over the same period. However, the stock still remains down by about 1.4% over the last month. The gains are driven partly by a recovery in the software and tech stocks following the late September sell-off and also by recent data indicating strong consumer spending trends heading into the holidays. Separately, Shopify also recently teamed up with Microsoft and Oracle to offer enterprise resource planning tools on the Shopify app. The move would give Shopify customers a unified system of sorts that connects the e-commerce platform with their financial and inventory data.

Now, is Shopify stock poised to grow? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last six years, there is a 69% chance of a rise in SHOP stock over the next month (about twenty-one trading days). See our analysis on Shopify Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

Five Days: SHOP 8%, vs. S&P 500 3%; Outperformed market

(16% Event Probability)

  • Shopify stock rose 8% over a five-day trading period ending 10/18/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which rose 3%.
  • A change of 8% or more over five trading days has a 16% event probability, which has occurred 251 times out of 1608 times in the last six years.

Ten Days: SHOP 11%, vs. S&P 500 4.3%; Outperformed market

(20% Event Probability)

  • Shopify stock rose 11% over a ten-day trading period ending 10/18/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which rose 4.3%.
  • A change of 11% or more over ten trading days has a 20% event probability, which has occurred 324 times out of 1603 times in the last six years.

Twenty-One Days: SHOP -1.4%, vs. S&P 500 1.3%; Underperformed market

(30% Event Probability)

  • Shopify stock declined -1.4% over a twenty-one-day trading period ending 10/18/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which declined by -0.3%.
  • A change of -1.4% or more over twenty-one trading days has a 30% event probability, which has occurred 475 times out of 1592 times in the last six years.

Check out our theme of E-commerce Stocks for a complete list of stocks that stand to benefit as retail increasingly shifts online.

[9/22/2021] What’s Happening With Shopify Stock?

While Shopify stock (NYSE: SHOP) has rallied by over 30% year-to-date, it has largely traded sideways at levels of roughly $1,450 since June 2021. Although demand for the company’s software and services remains strong, with Shopify revenues beating expectations yet again over Q2 2021, e-commerce stocks, in general, have been mixed performers in recent months, as the re-opening of the physical economy following the Covid lockdowns is reducing investor interest in online retail.

Now, there have been some positive developments for Shopify, such as its deal with TikTok that enables businesses to create digital storefronts on the TikTok app, while enabling consumers to buy products directly. However, other companies are also looking to take on Shopify in the fast-growing e-commerce solutions space. For instance, creative software behemoth Adobe says that it will add payment services powered by the PayPal Commerce Platform to Adobe Commerce, its merchant e-commerce platform. Adobe already provides software that helps retailers create and manage online stores and the new payment system could enable it to better compete with Shopify. Amazon is also looking to take on Shopify by developing its own point-of-sale system that will apparently process transactions online and in physical stores.

Overall, we think Shopify stock still looks a bit pricey at current levels of around $1,450 per share, trading at about 240x forward earnings. This is ahead of our fair value estimate of $1,300 per share for Shopify. However, this is probably a premium that investors are willing to pay for the fast-growing company, which has proved to be a big innovator in the e-commerce market. See our interactive analysis Shopify Valuation: Is SHOP Stock Expensive Or Cheap? for more details.

[6/18/2021] Is The Recent Rally In Shopify Stock Justified?

Shopify stock (NYSE: SHOP) gained about 17% over the last five trading days and remains up by a solid 28% over the past month, rising to about $1,450 per share, outperforming the S&P 500 which has returned just about 2% over the past month. The rally was driven by multiple factors including the recent expansion of Shopify’s Shop Pay payment system to all merchants on Facebook and Google, upgrades by multiple brokerages, and higher interest in the stock following Shopify’s stronger than expected quarterly earnings published in late April.

So is Shopify stock still a buy after the recent rally? Shopify certainly has a lot going for it. The Covid-19 pandemic has accelerated this shift to e-commerce, and Shopify – which provides small and medium businesses the software tools and services they need to go online – has emerged as a major beneficiary. Over Q1 2021, Shopify more than doubled its revenues and grew its adjusted EPS by almost 10x versus the previous year, and revenue growth is projected at over 50% this year. Longer-term growth should also hold up, as Shopify expands its merchant services such as payments, merchant financing, fulfillment, and point-of-sale systems. The company is also seen as a merchant-friendly alternative to e-commerce behemoth Amazon, which is perceived to be competing with sellers who use its marketplace. That said, we think Shopify stock looks a bit pricey at current levels of around $1,450 per share, or about 330x forward earnings. This is ahead of our fair value estimate of $1,300 per share for the stock. However, this is probably a premium that investors are willing to pay for the fast-growing company, which has proved to be a big innovator in the e-commerce market. See our interactive analysis Shopify Valuation: Is SHOP Stock Expensive Or Cheap? for more details.

[5/26/2021]  Why Shopify Stock Will Trend Higher Still

Shopify stock (NYSE: SHOP) gained about 9% over the last week (five trading days) rising to about $1,240 per share, outperforming the S&P 500 which was up by 2% over the same period. Although there hasn’t been much news specific to the company over the last few days, the software and technology space, in general, has seen renewed investor interest, with the Nasdaq up by about 4% over the last week, amid lower than expected jobless claims and cooling inflationary pressures. So is Shopify stock still a buy after the recent rally? We think so, and value Shopify stock at about $1,300 per share. See our interactive analysis Shopify Valuation: Is SHOP Stock Expensive Or Cheap? for more details.

Although Shopify stock currently trades at a relatively lofty 280x forward earnings and 33x forward revenues, we think the stock is still worth considering. E-commerce sales should continue to grow quickly at the expense of physical store sales, as consumer behavior is likely to have undergone a significant shift through Covid-19, and Shopify, with its highly scalable business model, should be a prime beneficiary as more small businesses go online. Shopify is also well placed versus rivals. The company is positioning itself as a merchant-friendly alternative to Amazon, which is perceived to be competing with sellers in its marketplace. Shopify’s product is also viewed as superior and more comprehensive compared to the likes of Wix and Squarespace and its business is also growing faster. Shopify is also expanding to offer additional services including payments, shipping, merchant financing, and point-of-sale systems. Shopify’s revenues are likely to grow by about 52% this year, per consensus estimates.  Considering this, we think it’s quite likely that the company will continue to generate returns for shareholders.

[5/3/2021]  Shopify Stock Updates

Shopify stock (NYSE: SHOP) is up by about 9% over the last week (five trading days) outperforming the S&P 500 which is down by about -0.3% over the same period. The recent surge in the stock comes as the e-commerce software provider delivered a solid set of Q1 2021 earnings, with sales more than doubling year-over-year to $989 million, with its adjusted EPS standing at $2.01, roughly 3x the consensus estimates. So is Shopify stock poised to rise further or could it see a decline? Per our machine learning engine, which analyzes historical stock price data, Shopify stock has a 58% chance of a rise over the next one month (21 trading days) after gaining almost 9% in the last five trading days. The one-month expected return for the stock is 3.5%. See our analysis Shopify Stock Chances of Rise for more details.

So what’s the outlook like for Shopify? Now, Shopify’s Q1 results were much stronger than expected, as the latest round of government stimulus, which ended in early April, helped bolster gross merchandise values that, in turn, drive Shopify’s merchant solutions revenue. However, growth is likely to slow a bit in the coming quarters, as the Covid-19 pandemic recedes, and consumer spending in brick and mortar stores likely picks up. That being said, the longer-term outlook for the company looks good, in our view. E-commerce sales should continue to grow quickly at the expense of physical store sales, as consumer behavior is likely to have undergone a significant shift through the pandemic, and Shopify, with its highly scalable business model, should benefit as more small businesses go online. Moreover, the company is positioning itself as a merchant-friendly alternative to Amazon, which is seen as competing with sellers on its platform. Shopify’s revenues are likely to grow by over 50% this year, per consensus estimates.  Considering this, we think it’s quite likely that the company will generate continued returns for shareholders, although the rate of returns is likely to diminish considerably given the company’s high valuation (about 280x forward earnings).

[2/10/2021] What’s Driving Shopify Stock?

Shopify (NYSE: SHOP) stock has rallied by about 30% year-to-date, and the stock has jumped almost 3x over the last 12 months. There are a couple of trends driving the recent rally. Firstly, analysts and investment managers have been increasingly bullish on the stock, despite its high valuation, citing Shopify’s sizable market opportunity. Secondly, Shopify said that it would be extending its payments service Shop Pay for transactions on Facebook and Instagram, marking the first time the tool is available outside the e-commerce stores of Shopify merchants. Facebook, with over 1.8 billion daily users, should be a sizable market for Shopify’s growing payment service.

Now are further gains in the cards for Shopify, after this big rally? Shopify trades at a relatively steep 45x consensus 2021 revenue, but it is growing quickly, with sales likely to expand by 34% year-over-year in 2021. In comparison, Etsy, an online marketplace targeted at small and home-based businesses, trades at a more reasonable 16x projected 2021 revenues, consensus estimates peg growth at just about 12% for this year. If Shopify is able to sustain its high growth, considering the quickly growing e-commerce market, and its focus on small businesses, it should be able to drive further returns for investors, although the rate of returns is likely to diminish considerably given the company’s already high valuation. See our analysis Why Shopify Stock Moved 14x since 2017 for a closer look at what’s driven Shopify’s stock in recent years.

[1/19/2021] Are Further Gains Around the Corner

Shopify (NYSE: SHOP), a technology company that helps businesses get online by setting up e-commerce websites and handling related services, has seen its stock price rise by about 2.6x over the past 12 months. The stock is also up by almost 11x since the end of 2017. The Covid-19 pandemic has helped accelerate Shopify’s business, as customers increasingly turned to the Internet to buy things with more small businesses also investing in building online stores using Shopify’s solutions. For perspective, the number of new businesses on Shopify’s platform shot up 71% year-over-year in Q2 alone. Are further gains in the cards for Shopify stock or are the recent trends priced-in the stock for the near-term? Let’s take a look at what’s driven the gains in Shopify’s stock price in recent years and what the outlook for the company could be like. See our dashboard analysis on Shopify Stock Grew Over 10x Since 2017. Here’s How. for a detailed overview of how Shopify’s Revenues and multiple have changed in recent years.

What Has Driven Shopify Stock Price In Recent Years

Shopify has two revenue streams – namely Subscriptions, which gives users access to its e-commerce platform and tools, and Merchant Services which include payments, shipping, and financing. Shopify’s Revenues have grown from about $673 million in 2017 to about $2.46 billion in the last 12 months, marking a growth of about 265%. While Shopify’s Subscription Services expanded by about 37% over the last 12 months, Merchant solutions Revenue almost doubled, as Gross Merchandise Volume – which is essentially the total dollar value of orders facilitated through the Shopify platform – continued to soar, with the share of payments processed by Shopify also rising. Shopify’s Revenue per Share has grown at a slightly slower pace compared to Revenue, rising by about 184% since 2017 to about $20 per share, on account of a slightly higher share count. However, investors have valued Shopify more richly, with its P/S multiple rising from around 17x in 2017 to 30x in 2019 and 58x in 2020. Shopify’s higher valuation has come partly due to stronger recent growth, higher valuations for equities, in general, and increasing investor interest in the stocks of asset-light companies with growing revenue streams.

Are More Gains In The Cards For Shopify Stock?

Shopify’s Revenue is expected to grow by 80% in 2020 (up from around 48% last year) per consensus figures to about $2.85 billion, driven by Covid-19 related demand for its subscription and merchant services. Further, per consensus, Revenues are likely to grow to about $3.8 billion next year. This means that the company trades at about 38x projected 2021 Revenues. Can Shopify sustain its growth and eventually drive further gains for investors? Shopify’s addressable market is growing quickly as more businesses move online and the company’s offering is also highly scalable, enabling it to acquire customers seamlessly.  Moreover, the company is positioning itself as a merchant-friendly alternative to Amazon, which is seen as competing with sellers on its platform. Shopify is also moving into the fulfillment market, while also offering financing and payment solutions. Considering this, we think it’s quite likely that the company will generate continued returns for shareholders, although the rate of returns is likely to diminish considerably given the company’s already high valuation.

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