Can Roche’s Blockbuster Drug Herceptin’s Sales Grow?

Roche Holding’s (NASDAQ:RHHBY) Herceptin is the leading targeted therapy for the treatment of metastatic HER2 positive breast cancer. HER2 positive breast cancer refers to a type of breast cancer, in which the cells have higher than normal levels of HER2, which is a protein called human epidermal growth factor receptor 2. These cancers tend to grow and spread faster than other breast cancers. Pfizer’s Ibrance, Novartis’ Kisqali and Afinitor are used as targeted therapy for metastatic hormone receptor positive, HER2-negative breast cancer. AstraZeneca’s Lynparaza is used as targeted therapy for people with BRCA1 or BRCA2 gene mutation. In this note we discuss Roche’s Herceptin sales, and compare it with other breast cancer drugs in the market. You can view our interactive dashboard analysis ~ How Does Roche’s Herceptin Compare To Other Breast Cancer Drugs? ~ for more details. In addition, look at our data for healthcare companies here.

Roche’s Herceptin Is the Top Selling Targeted Therapy Followed By Pfizer’s Ibrance

• Roche’s Herceptin is the leader in the breast cancer drugs space with annual sales of around $7 billion.
• Herceptin’s sales have hovered around the $7 billion mark over the last few years.
• Pfizer’s Ibrance has been gaining traction, with sales growing from $0.7 billion in 2015 to $4.1 billion in 2018.
• Roche’s other breast cancer drugs include Perjeta and Kadcyla. Perjeta’s sales grew from $1.0 billion in 2014 to $2.8 billion in 2018. However, Kadcyla has seen slower growth with sales growing from $589 million in 2014 to $999 million in 2018.
• Among other drugs, Novartis’ Afinitor sales have hovered around $1.5 billion over the last few years, while the company’s newer drug – Kisqali – saw revenue grow from $76 million in 2017 to $235 million in 2018.

Herceptin’s Share Among The HER2 Breast Cancer Drugs Have Declined Over The Last Few Years

• Combined sales of HER2 breast cancer drugs above grew from $10.1 billion in 2014 to $17.9 billion in 2018.
• Herceptin’s share declined from 68% to 40% during the same period, as newer drugs saw sales growth at a faster pace.  This trend could continue over the next few years, especially given Herceptin’s sales are expected to decline.
• While Roche’s Herceptin has seen strong revenue growth in the past, its sales could decline over the next few years, as it will lose market exclusivity, and compete with biosimilars.
• The U.S. FDA approved Pfizer’s Trazimera, a biosimilar to Herceptin, earlier this year.
• There are more new drugs approved in the recent past, including Eli Lilly’s Verzinio, and Novartis’ Piqray for HER2 negative breast cancer, and Pfizer’s Talzenna for cases with gene mutation, and growth in sales of these drugs will result in lower market share for Herceptin.

Herceptin Is Expected To Lose Market Exclusivity In 2019, While Other Drugs Are Protected For A Few More Years, As Shown Below

• Herceptin’s loss of exclusivity: 2019
• Ibrance’s loss of exclusivity: 2023
• Perjeta’s loss of exclusivity: 2024
• Kadcyla’s loss of exclusivity: 2026
• Kisqali’s loss of exclusivity: 2028

Herceptin In An Important Drug For Roche, Given Its Contribution To The Total Pharmaceutical Sales

• Roche has a wide presence in pharmaceuticals, and Herceptin, with its $7 billion in annual sales, accounts for 15% of the company’s total pharmaceuticals sales, and it is thus an important drug for Roche.

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