Roche Q4 Earnings Preview: Watching Rituxan And Perjeta Sales

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Roche Holdings (NASDAQ:RHHBY) is scheduled to announce its Q4 earnings on February 1. We’ll be closely watching how Rituxan sales trend during the quarter. The drug witnessed a double-digit drop in the previous quarter, after its patent expired in the EU in early 2017. Rituxan is an important drug for Roche, with sales close to $6 billion in 2016, and it is nearing patent expiry in the U.S. as well. Other key drugs – Avastin and Herceptin – are also nearing patent expiry in the U.S., which will impact the company’s oncology segment sales in the coming years.

While we expect lower sales for the aforementioned three drugs, Roche will still likely post overall growth in Q4 due to its new drugs – Tecentriq and Ocrevus. We expect the company’s management to give an outlook on Tecentriq and provide an update on its combination trials. Looking at the company’s HER2+ franchise, we expect a continued ramp up in Perjeta’s sales. The drug is seeing strong demand due to presurgical usage and metastatic breast cancer uptake in the EU.

We have created an interactive dashboard that details the company’s expected full year 2017 performance. You can modify segment revenues and margins to see how those changes impact the earnings.

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Expect Full Year Revenues Of Nearly $55B

Revenue Breakup

EPS ~ $1.92

Our price estimate of $33 for Roche Holdings’ stock is more than 5% above the current market price.

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