Royal Caribbean Stock Rises As U.S. Covid Cases Show Declining Trend. What’s Next?

by Trefis Team
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Royal Caribbean stock (NYSE: RCL) has risen by almost 8% over the last week (five trading days), compared to the S&P 500 which was up 0.6% over the same period. The stock is also up by about 8.7% over the last month. There are likely a couple of factors driving the stock higher. Firstly, the recent Covid-19 wave in the U.S. caused by the highly infectious delta virus variant appears to have peaked and investors are likely to seeing value in RCL stock which fell by almost 20% between June and early September. Pfizer’s Covid-19 vaccine received full FDA approval for individuals 16 years of age and older late last month. With a fully approved vaccine available, the U.S. is looking to impose new vaccine mandates on federal workers, large employers, and health care staff, in a move that could help to moderate the spread of Covid-19. This augurs well for travel stocks.

Now, is RCL stock poised to grow? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a 52% chance of a rise in RCL stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis on Royal Caribbean Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.

Five Days: RCL 8.2%, vs. S&P500 0.6%; Outperformed market

(7% Event Probability)

  • Royal Caribbean stock rose 8.2% over a five day trading period ending 9/24/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) which rose by 0.6%
  • A change of 8.2% or more over five trading days has a 7% event probability, which has occurred 175 times out of 2517 times in the last ten years.

Ten Days: RCL 11%, vs. S&P500 -0.3%; Outperformed market

(7% event probability)

  • Royal Caribbean stock rose 11% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to the broader market (S&P500) decline of -0.3%
  • A change of 11% or more over ten trading days has a 7% event probability, which has occurred 175 times out of 2517 times in the last ten years. 

Twenty-One Days: RCL 8.7%, vs. S&P500 -1.1%; Outperformed market

(20% event probability)

  • Royal Caribbean stock rose 8.7% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to the broader market (S&P500) decline of 1.1%.
  • A change of 8.7% or more over twenty-one trading days has a 20% event probability, which has occurred 510 times out of 2515 times in the last ten years. 

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