Down 15% In A Month, Will QuidelOrtho Stock Rebound?

QuidelOrtho stock (NASDAQ: QDEL), a manufacturer of diagnostic healthcare products, including the Covid-19 test, reported its Q2 results last week, with revenue and earnings falling below the street estimates. QDEL stock fell around 11% in a week, while it’s down 15% in a month. The company reported revenue of $613 million (up 246% y-o-y) and EPS of $2.34 (up 284% y-o-y) in Q2, compared to the consensus estimates of $768 million and $2.68, respectively. The significant y-o-y top and bottom line growth can be attributed to its merger with Ortho Clinical Diagnostics in May 2022. QuidelOrtho’s management has guided for the full year 2022 revenue (constant currency) to be between $3.8 and $3.9 billion and earnings to be between $11.80 and $12.75 on a per share and adjusted basis.

Now that QDEL stock has seen a fall of 15% in a month, will it continue its downward trajectory, or is a rise imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a higher chance of an increase for QDEL stock over the next month. QDEL stock has seen a fall of 15% or more in a month 190 times in the last ten years. Of those, 118 resulted in QDEL stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 118 out of 190, or about a 62% chance of a rise in QDEL stock over the next month. See our analysis of QuidelOrtho’s Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using the last ten years’ data

• After moving -11% or more over five days, the stock rose on 45% of the occasions in the next five days.
• After moving -12% or more over ten days, the stock rose on 45% of the occasions in the next ten days.
• After moving -15% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose on 62% of the occasions in the next twenty-one days.

This pattern suggests a higher chance of a decline in QDEL stock over the next five and ten days but a higher chance of a rise over the next twenty-one days.

QuidelOrtho (QDEL) Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers

• Five-Day Return: OPGN highest at 10.8%; QDEL lowest at -11.4%
• Ten-Day Return: OPGN highest at 6.2%; QDEL lowest at -11.8%
• Twenty-One Day Return: TRIB highest at 3.7%; QDEL lowest at -15.2%

While QDEL stock looks like it can gain over the next month, it is helpful to see how QuidelOrtho’s Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other valuable comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

Furthermore, the Covid-19 crisis has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Xylem vs. Merck.

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[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 8/9/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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