PayPal Stock Lost 10% In One Week, Where Is It Headed?

PYPL: PayPal logo
PYPL
PayPal

PayPal stock (NASDAQ: PYPL) has lost 9.6% in the last week, underperforming the S&P 500 (down 2.1%). Further, the same trend was observed over the last ten days (-14% vs -3.3%) and one month (-10% vs -0.7%). The recent stock volatility, especially in the high-growth tech stocks, is due to high inflation, the potential effect of interest rate hikes, and overall hesitation in the market due to other macro factors like the Russia-Ukraine crisis, etc.

The company offers a digital payments system worldwide that supports online money transfers and serves as an electronic alternative to traditional paper methods. It posted mixed results in the last quarter, with revenues beating the consensus but earnings missing the mark. Further, the firm expects revenue growth of 6% y-o-y in the first quarter of FY2022, followed by Non-GAAP earnings of $0.87. Overall, the mixed results in Q4 2021 and lower than expected guidance for Q1, added to the investor woes toward the stock. 

Now, is PayPal stock set to drop further, or could we expect some improvement? We believe that there is a 61% chance of a rise in PayPal stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last seven years. See our analysis on PayPal Stock Chance of Rise.

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Additionally, if you are considering PayPal’s stock as an investment option over a larger time frame, you can explore our forecast for PayPal’s valuation.

Twenty-One Day: PYPL -10%, vs. S&P500 -0.7%; Underperformed market

(9% likelihood event; 61% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • PayPal stock lost 10% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) decline of 0.7%
  • A change of -10% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 9% likelihood event, which has occurred 155 times out of 1678 in the last seven years
  • Of these 155 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 94 occasions
  • This points to a 61% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: PYPL -14%, vs. S&P500 -3.3%; Underperformed market

(2% likelihood event; 31% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • PayPal stock decreased 14% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) loss of 3.3%
  • A change of -14% or more over ten trading days is a 2% likelihood event, which has occurred 42 times out of 1689 in the last seven years
  • Of these 42 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 13 occasions
  • This points to a 31% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: PYPL -9.6%, vs. S&P500 -2.1%; Underperformed market

(3% likelihood event; 62% probability of rise over next five days)

  • PayPal stock lost 9.6% over a five-day trading period ending 04/18/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) decline of 2.1%
  • A change of -9.6% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 3% likelihood event, which has occurred 47 times out of 1694 in the last seven years
  • Of these 47 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 29 occasions
  • This points to a 62% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

Check out how PayPal Peers fare on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Apr 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 PYPL Return -13% -47% 155%
 S&P 500 Return -3% -8% 96%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio -3% -10% 253%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 4/19/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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