Can PVH Stock Rebound After Falling 15% In A Month?

PVH: PVH logo

[Note: PVH FY’22 ended on Jan 2022 ]

PVH Corp’s stock (NYSE: PVH), formerly known as Phillips-Van Heusen Corporation, owns brands such as Van Heusen, Tommy Hilfiger, and Calvin Klein. The company’s stock has declined by almost 15% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month) and currently stands at around $64. In comparison, the broader S&P500 index declined almost 7% over the same period. The rising inflationary pressures and the ongoing Russia and Ukraine conflict (2% of total revenues is impacted) are the major headwinds for the company at present. The company was negatively affected by the Covid pandemic, as shown by its current revenue level of $9.2 billion in fiscal 2022 (year ended Jan’22), still down compared to the pre-pandemic level of $9.9 billion. However, it made a significant growth of 28% year-over-year (y-o-y) in FY’22. The company has also improved its current operating margin to 10.6%, an improvement over -1% in fiscal 2021 and 8.2% in fiscal 2020. In fact, the cost savings initiatives implemented at PVH and the divestitures of Heritage Brands Retail segment aided the company in generating an outstanding growth in its EPS, which came at $13.45 in FY 2022, up from -$15.96 recorded in fiscal 2021 and $5.62 recorded in fiscal 2020 (year ended Jan’20).

PVH’s management provided a positive outlook for its fiscal year 2023 and a roadmap for a $12 billion total revenue in the fiscal year 2025. Compared to its current levels, this represents a substantial upward swing in its revenue growth.

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Now, is PVH stock poised to decline in the short term or are gains looking more likely? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a 57% chance of a rise in PVH stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis of PVH’s Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of rising’ using last ten years’ data

[1] Returns of -4.2% or lower over a five-day period on 439 occasions out of 2516 (17%); Stock rose in the next five days in 227 of these 439 instances (52%)

[2] Returns of -4.2% or lower over a ten-day period on 598 occasions out of 2516 (24%); Stock rose in the next ten days in 311 of these 598 instances (52%)

[3] Returns of -15% or lower over a twenty-one-day period on 168 occasions out of 2516 (7%); Stock rose in the next twenty-one days in 95 of these 168 instances (57%)

It is helpful to see how its peers stack up. PVH Peers shows how PVH stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns May 2022
MTD [1]
YTD [1]
Total [2]
 PVH Return -12% -40% -29%
 S&P 500 Return -4% -17% 78%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio -5% -21% 210%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 5/24/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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