PTC Inc. Stock Lost 4% In One Week, What’s Next?

PTC: PTC logo
PTC
PTC

PTC Inc. stock (NASDAQ: PTC) has lost 4.1% in the last week, marginally lower than the S&P 500 (down 4%). However, the stock has also underperformed over the last ten days (-8.3% vs -5.1%) and one month (-8.9% vs -0.2%). 

PTC is a global software and services company that offers a portfolio of innovative digital solutions. Its technology portfolio spans the computer-aided design (CAD), product lifecycle management (PLM), industrial internet of things (IIoT), and augmented reality (AR) space. The company released their third-quarter results (FY Oct-Sept) at the end of July, missing the street expectations. While the revenues increased 6% y-o-y to $462.5 million, it was still below the consensus estimates. The top line mainly suffered due to unfavorable foreign exchange movements and exiting Russia business due to the Ukraine-Russia conflict. It partially reduced the positive impact of higher revenue from recurring revenue business lines, especially in the digital thread segment. In addition to lower then expected results, PTC lowered the revenue guidance to $1.9-$1.95 billion for FY2022, owing to foreign exchange headwinds. This has made investors somewhat cautious about the stock. 

Now, is PTC stock set to drop further, or could we expect some recovery? We believe that there is a 69% chance of a rise in PTC stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine-learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on PTC Inc. Stock Chance of Rise.

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Twenty-One Day: PTC -8.9%, vs. S&P500 -0.2%; Underperformed market

(10% likelihood event; 69% probability of rise over next 21 days)

  • PTC Inc. stock lost 8.9% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) decrease of 0.2%
  • A change of -8.9% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 10% likelihood event, which has occurred 249 times out of 2513 in the last ten years
  • Of these 249 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 172 occasions
  • This points to a 69% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days

Ten Day: PTC -8.3%, vs. S&P500 -5.1%; Underperformed market

(5% likelihood event; 50% probability of rise over next 10 days)

  • PTC Inc. stock decreased 8.3% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) loss of 5.1%
  • A change of -8.3% or more over ten trading days is a 5% likelihood event, which has occurred 128 times out of 2513 in the last ten years
  • Of these 128 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 64 occasions
  • This points to a 50% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days

Five Day: PTC -4.1%, vs. S&P500 -4%; Underperformed market

(13% likelihood event; 59% probability of rise over next five days)

  • PTC Inc. stock lost 4.1% over a five-day trading period ending 08/26/2022, compared to the broader market (S&P500) drop of 4%
  • A change of -4.1% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 13% likelihood event, which has occurred 319 times out of 2513 in the last ten years
  • Of these 319 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 189 occasions
  • This points to a 59% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

 Returns Aug 2022
MTD [1]
2022
YTD [1]
2017-22
Total [2]
 PTC Return -7% -5% 148%
 S&P 500 Return -2% -15% 81%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio -2% -15% 239%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 8/29/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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