Despite A 25% Rise In A Month Progyny Stock May Continue To See Higher Levels

by Trefis Team
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The stock price of Progyny (NASDAQ: PGNY), a benefits management company that specializes in fertility and family building benefits solutions, has seen a rise of around 25% over the last month (twenty-one trading days), while it has more than doubled over the last twelve months. Progyny reported its Q2 results last month with revenues slightly below and earnings better than the consensus estimates. The company provided its guidance for the full-year 2021 with revenues estimated to be $520 million and EPS to be around $0.47, at mid-point of their range. The mixed results led to a gradual decline of over 20% in PGNY stock in the first half of August. However, the stock has seen a sharp recovery over the last month or so, led by an increased optimism for its business prospects.

But now that PGNY stock has seen a 25% move over the last month or so, will it continue its upward trajectory, or is a fall imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a strong chance of a rise in PGNY stock over the next month. Out of 54 instances in the last two years that PGNY stock saw a twenty-one day rise of 25% or more, 42 of them resulted in PGNY stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 42 out of 54, or about a 78% chance of a rise in PGNY stock over the coming month. See our analysis on Progyny Stock Chances of Rise for more details.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last ten years data

  • After moving -1.8% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days on 63% of the occasions.
  • After moving 4.8% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 57% of the occasions
  • After moving 25% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 78% of the occasions.

Predict average return on Progyny (PGNY) Stock Return: AI Predicts PGNY Average and Excess Return After a Fall or Rise

Progyny (PGNY) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers

  • Five-Day Return: PTON highest at 16%; ZBH lowest at -3.8%
  • Ten-Day Return: PTON highest at 9.9%; ZBH lowest at -5.9%
  • Twenty-One Day Return: PGNY highest at 25%; ZBH lowest at -3.5%

While PGNY stock may see higher levels, 2020 has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Zoetis vs Regeneron.

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