The stock price of Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) has seen a rise of 10% over the last month, while it is down 6% YTD. The increase over the previous month can partly be attributed to Pfizer’s acquisition of Arena Pharmaceuticals for $6.7 billion. This is largely seen as a positive for Pfizer, given Arena’s robust drug pipeline, which focuses on immunology drugs. One of the late-stage candidates – Etrasimod – is used to treat ulcerative colitis, Crohn’s disease, and eosinophilic esophagitis, and its potential peak sales are estimated to top $2.5 billion.
In our previous Pfizer updates, we mentioned that Pfizer stock is undervalued, and the fall following the underwhelming sales guidance of its Covid-19 products in 2022 can be used as a buying opportunity. PFE stock has now rallied 10% in a month, narrowing the upside potential. We estimate Pfizer’s Valuation to be around $63 per share, reflecting a 20% upside from its current levels of $53.
But what about the near term? Given that PFE stock has seen a rise of 10% in a month, will it continue its upward trajectory, or is a fall imminent? Going by its historical performance, there is a higher chance of an increase in PFE stock over the next month. Out of 123 instances in the last ten years that PFE stock saw a twenty-one-day rise of 10% or more, 69 of them resulted in PFE stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 69 out of 123, or about a 56% chance of a rise in PFE stock over the coming month. See our analysis on Pfizer Stock Chances of Rise for more details.
While PFE stock may see an increase over the next month, seeing how its peers stack up is helpful. Check out Pfizer Peers to see how PFE stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You can find more useful comparisons on Peer Comparisons.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last ten years’ data
- After moving -2.9% or more over five days, the stock rose on 51% of the occasions in the next five days.
- After moving 9.7% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 56% of the occasions
- After moving 10.3% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose on 56% of the occasions in the next twenty-one days.
This pattern suggests a higher chance of a rise in PFE stock over the next five days, ten days, and one month.
Pfizer (PFE) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers
- Five-Day Return: MRK highest at 1.0%; PFE lowest at -2.9%
- Ten-Day Return: LLY highest at 6.7%; PFE lowest at 0.7%
- Twenty-One Days Return: LLY highest at 14.4%; RHHBY lowest at 3.0%
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 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 3/29/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016