What’s Next For Pfizer Stock After A 10% Fall In A Month?

PFE: Pfizer logo

The stock price of Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) has seen a fall of 10% over the last month, while it is up 4% in a week. The decline over the previous month can be attributed to Pfizer’s underwhelming guidance for its Covid-19 vaccine and treatment sales in 2022. In our last Pfizer update, we mentioned that the company’s guidance is based only on deals already made, and the figure is likely to inch higher as the year progresses. More recently, the Biden government announced the “Test To Treat” initiative, which will allow people with positive Covid-19 test to get Pfizer’s Covid-19 antiviral pill – Paxlovid –  at zero cost. This led to a slight recovery in PFE stock.

Looking forward, given that PFE stock has seen a fall of 10% in a month, will it continue its downward trajectory, or is a rise imminent? Going by its historical performance, there is a higher chance of an increase in PFE stock over the next month. Out of 76 instances in the last ten years that PFE stock saw a twenty-one-day fall of 10% or more, 44 of them resulted in PFE stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 44 out of 76, or about a 58% chance of a rise in PFE stock over the coming month. See our analysis on Pfizer Stock Chances of Rise for more details.

While PFE stock may see an increase over the next month, seeing how its peers stack up is helpful. Check out Pfizer Peers to see how PFE stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You can find more useful comparisons on Peer Comparisons.

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Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last ten years’ data

  • After moving 4.1% or more over five days, the stock rose on 56% of the occasions in the next five days.
  • After moving 3.7% or more over ten days, the stock rose in the next ten days on 59% of the occasions
  • After moving -9.9% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose on 58% of the occasions in the next twenty-one days.

This pattern suggests a higher chance of a rise in PFE stock over the next five days, ten days, and one month.

Pfizer (PFE) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers

  • Five-Day Return: JNJ highest at 6.5%; RHHBY lowest at 1.3%
  • Ten-Day Return: LLY highest at 5.3%; PFE lowest at -3.7%
  • Twenty-One Days Return: BMY highest at 6.2%; PFE lowest at -9.9%

While PFE stock may see higher levels, the Covid-19 crisis has created many pricing discontinuities, which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Medtronic vs. IDEXX Laboratories.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Mar 2022
MTD [1]
YTD [1]
Total [2]
 PFE Return 2% -19% 47%
 S&P 500 Return 0% -8% 95%
 Trefis MS Portfolio Return -1% -11% 244%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 3/4/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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