All Eyes On Covid-19 Vaccine Contribution As Pfizer Reports Its Q1

by Trefis Team
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Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) is scheduled to report its Q1 2021 results on Tuesday, May 4. We expect the company to likely post revenue and earnings above the consensus estimates, primarily led by its Covid-19 vaccine. Pfizer should see an overall pickup in pharmaceutical demand due to an increase in hospital visits with economies opening up gradually. We expect the company to navigate well based on these trends over the latest quarter.

However, our forecast indicates that Pfizer’s valuation is $40 per share, which is largely in-line with the current market price. Our interactive dashboard analysis on Pfizer’s Pre-Earnings has additional details.

(1) Revenues expected to be above the consensus estimates

Trefis estimates Pfizer’s Q1 2021 revenues to be around $14.0 billion, slightly above the $13.6 billion consensus estimate. Now that the economies are opening up with vaccination programs underway in multiple countries, pharmaceutical companies will likely benefit from an increase in the volume of new patient starts. For Pfizer, its Covid-19 vaccine remains the key growth driver in the near term, with 2021 annual sales projected to be $16 billion, per Trefis estimates. Pfizer’s Q4 2020 sales were up 12% y-o-y to $11.7 billion, primarily reflecting growth in Oncology and Vaccines sales. Our dashboard on Pfizer Revenues offers more details on the company’s segments.

2) EPS likely to be slightly above the consensus estimates

Pfizer’s Q1 2021 adjusted earnings per share (EPS) is expected to be $0.80 per Trefis analysis, slightly above the consensus estimate of $0.78. Pfizer’s adjusted net income of $2.4 billion in Q4 2020 reflected a 15% rise from its $2.1 billion figure in the prior-year quarter, due to higher revenues as well as margin expansion. The margins will likely improve further going forward, as the current Covid-19 crisis subsides. For the full year 2021, we expect the adjusted EPS to be higher at $3.30 compared to $2.22 in 2020.

(3) Stock price estimate in-line with the current market price

Going by our Pfizer’s Valuation, with an EPS estimate of $3.30 and a P/E multiple of 12x in 2021, this translates into a price of $40, in-line with the current market price near $39. While the 12x figure is lower than the levels of over 14x seen in 2018 and 16x as recently as late 2020, this can be attributed to the fact that Pfizer’s EPS will be higher in 2021, followed by a decline from 2022 onward, with a slowdown in Covid-19 vaccine sales. This also explains why PFE stock hasn’t seen the kind of growth that some of the other Covid-19 related stocks have. Look at our Pfizer Covid-19 Vaccine Updates for more details.

Note: P/E Multiples are based on Share Price at the end of the year and reported (or expected) Adjusted Earnings for the full year.

While PFE stock may be fully valued, it is helpful to see how its peers stack up. Check out Merck Peer Comparisons to see how MRK stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You can find more such useful comparisons on Peer Comparisons.

See all Trefis Price Estimates and Download Trefis Data here

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