Why Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Stock Has Dropped 40% In The Last Quarter

by Trefis Team
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Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: RARE), a biopharmaceutical company focused on serious rare and ultra-rare genetic diseases, has seen its stock price decline by close to 40% over the last 3 months. The decline could be due to the fact that the company posted wider than expected losses over the last two quarters. Separately, the stock has also seen some volatility since phase 3 trials of the company’s UX007 drug for patients with glucose transporter type-1 deficiency syndrome failed late last year.

We ‘step back’ from these recent swings to review Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals’ performance over the last few years, as a context for what might come next. Our Interactive dashboard, Why Has Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Stock Declined 40% Over The Last Quarter? reviews the near term reasons and the big picture.

The context for the last few years:

A closer look At Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals’ Total Revenues over the last few years and the outlook

Total Revenues for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical increased from $2.61 Mil in 2017 to $51.5 Mil in 2018, driven by collaboration-related revenue from Bayer and Kyowa Hakko Kirin, as well as higher product sales that were driven by the approval of the Mepsevii drug.

We expect Revenue Total Revenues growth to be 98% in 2019.

A closer look At Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals’ Total Expenses over the last few years and the outlook

Total Expense for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical increased from $332 Mil in 2017 to $423 Mil in 2018 – an increase of 27.5%.

This compares with Total Expense growth of:

• 68% in 2016

• 33.6% in 2017

We expect Total Expense to grow by 40% in 2019.

How does Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals’ Revenue Growth compare with rivals?

For more details on how Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals’ Revenue Growth compares with rivals BioMarin and Alexion, view our dashboard analysis.

How has  Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals’ EBT trended?

Earnings Before Taxes (EBT) for Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical decreased from $-329 Mil in 2017 to $-371 Mil in 2018 – a decrease of 12.9%.

We expect EBT to decline to -$490 in 2019.

How has Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals’ Net Income and EPS trended?

For more information on Ultragenyx Pharmaceuticals’ Net Income and EPS, view our interactive dashboard analysis.


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