Can Biosimilars Be The Next Growth Driver For Pfizer?

Biosimilars are versions of biologic medicines that have been developed and proven to be highly similar to the original biologic. They usually offer high-quality, lower-cost alternatives to biologic medicines. Pfizer (NYSE:PFE)  has been focused on developing biosimilars of late. In fact, it has received U.S. FDA approvals for biosimilars to some of the blockbuster drugs, such as Herceptin, Rituxan, Avastin, and Remicade. The combined peak sales of these biosimilars could be close to $6 billion in our view.  Pfizer has agreed to merge its Consumer Healthcare business with GlaxoSmithKline’s to form a new company, and similarly its Upjohn business to merge with Mylan’s generic drugs business to form a new company, and Pfizer will own a stake in the new ventures. After these deals are closed, Pfizer will be left with its BioPharma segment, which includes biosimilars, and they will account for more than 10% of the company’s total sales, in our view.  You can view our interactive dashboard analysis ~ How Big Can Biosimilars Be For Pfizer? ~ for more details.  In addition, you can see more of our data for Healthcare companies here.

Pfizer’s Biosimilars Sales Could Grow To $6 Billion By 2027

• Pfizer’s biosimilars sales could grow from $319 million in 2016 to over $6.0 billion in 2027.
• This represents an average annual growth rate of 31.7%.
• Pfizer’s biosimilars portfolio will primarily include Trazimera, Ruxience, Zirabev, PF-06410293, and Inflectra.

1. Trazimera, A Biosimilar To Herceptin

• Trazimera is a biosimilar to Herceptin, used for the treatment of human epidermal growth factor receptor-2 (HER2) breast cancer and gastric cancer.
• Trazimera was approved by the U.S. FDA in March 2019.
• Pfizer hasn’t announced the launch date for Trazimera yet, but it could be in 2020 to 2021, second only to Mylan’s Ogrivi, another approved biosimilar for Herceptin that could launch as early as 2019.
• We estimate the peak sales of Trazimera to be $1.2 billion by 2027.
• Note that Herceptin’s peak sales were north of $7 billion.

2. Ruxience, A Biosimilar To Rituxan

• Ruxience is a biosimilar to Rituxan, used for the treatment of adult patients with non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma (NHL), chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL), granulomatosis with polyangiitis (GPA), and microscopic polyangiitis (MPA).
• Ruxience was approved by the U.S. FDA in July 2019.
• Pfizer hasn’t announced the launch date for Ruxience yet, but it could be in 2020.
• We estimate the peak sales of Ruxience to be $1.0 billion by 2026.
• Note that Rituxan’s peak sales were north of $7 billion.

3. Zirabev, A Biosimilar To Avastin

• Zirabev is a biosimilar to Avastin, used for the treatment of colorectal cancer, non-squamous non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), renal cell carcinoma (RCC), and cervical cancer.
• Zirabev was approved by the U.S. FDA in June 2019.
• Pfizer hasn’t announced the launch date for Zirabev yet, but it could be in 2020 to 2021.
• We estimate the peak sales of Zirabev to be $1.2 billion by 2026.
• Note that Avastin’s peak sales were north of $7 billion.

4. PF-06410293, A Biosimilar To Humira

• PF-06410293 is a potential biosimilar to Humira, which is used for the treatment of inflammatory conditions in adults, such as ulcerative colitis, rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and plaque psoriasis.
• Pfizer has reached an agreement with AbbVie to launch Humira’s biosimilar in the U.S. in 2023.
• We estimate the peak sales of PF-06410293 to be $1.8 billion by 2029. Note that Humira’s sales were $20 billion in 2018.
• However, Pfizer’s biosimilar will be the sixth one to enter the U.S. market for Humira, and the chances of it grabbing a significant market share are unlikely.

5. Inflectra, A Biosimilar To Remicade, And Other Biosimilars

• Inflectra is a biosimilar to Remicade, which is used for the treatment of rheumatoid arthritis, psoriatic arthritis, ankylosing spondylitis, and severe plaque psoriasis in adults.
• Pfizer launched Inflectra in 2016, and the biosimilar generated sales of $642 million in 2018.
• Inflectra hasn’t seen a major adoption, possibly due to its pricing, which was only 15% lower than Remicade.
• Inflectra’s peak sales are estimated to be around $1 billion in 2024.
• Pfizer’s other biosimilars include Nivestim and Retacrit.

With Expected Growth In Biosimilars Sales, Its Contribution To Pfizer’s Total Sales Could Grow From <1% In 2016 To Over 11% In 2027. Note That We Have Not Included Consumer Healthcare And Upjohn Revenues In Total Sales, Given Pfizer Is In the Process of Separating Them To Merge With Similar Businesses of GlaxoSmithKline’s And Mylan’s Respectively.

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