Pfizer Sees An Uptick In Eliquis And Ibrance Sales
Pfizer’s (NYSE:PFE) recently released Q4 results were more or less in line with expectations. However, the stock declined in trading following the earnings release, due to tax rate guidance which was higher than expected. Eliquis sales jumped 46% during the quarter while Ibrance saw 11% growth. Inflectra, which is a biosimilar to J&J’s blockbuster drug Remicade, posted $135 million in sales. The company’s management stated that Inflectra’s market share increased from 4.9% in September 2017 to 5.6% in December. The company guided for a 17% tax rate in the coming years, compared to 20% currently. The company’s revenue guidance for 2018 is $53.5 billion to $55.5 billion while for earnings it is $2.90 to $3.00 per share.
We continue to expect that Pfizer’s future growth will be led by key drugs including Ibrance and Eliquis, while Bavencio will be an important drug to watch out for in terms of regulatory approvals. The company’s management stated that it has five pivotal studies with Bavencio combinations over the next two years. While Ibrance’s 2017 sales stood at $3.1 billion, we estimate the sales to be north of $4.5 billion by 2021. We believe this estimate is reasonable given the prevalence of breast cancer, as it accounts for 12% of all new cancer cases and 25% of all cancers in women, and the drug is being tested for other related indications. Looking at Eliquis, 2017 revenues were up 47% to $2.5 billion. It should be noted that marketing rights for Eliquis are shared between Pfizer and Bristol-Myers Squibb. We estimate the alliance revenues to continue to grow in the coming years as Eliquis adoption among healthcare professionals increases. Pfizer will also benefit from its biosimilars such as Inflectra, which offer a huge opportunity (see our interactive dashboard on Pfizer’s biosimilars business).
Pfizer will be looking at the bids for its consumer business, which may be worth up to $20 billion. However, the company could still ultimately decide to keep the business. We’ll be closely looking for any update on this, as it could have a meaningful impact on the company’s stock price.
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We currently have a price estimate of $35 for Pfizer, which is slightly below the current market price.
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