A Closer Look At Pfizer’s Phase 3 Pipeline

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We estimate that Pfizer’s (NYSE:PFE) phase 3 drug pipeline (not counting the enhancement of currently marketed products) can be worth as much as $50 billion, or nearly 25% of its current market value. Most of this value is likely to be realized from a number of biosimilars that Pfizer is currently developing. Take a look at our interactive breakdown of Pfizer’s phase 3 drug pipeline which shows key factors determining the pipeline’s value such as expected peak sales, expected growth trajectory and probability of market approval. You can adjust the assumptions to see how it impacts drug pipeline’s revenue forecast and valuation.

Our price estimate for Pfizer stands at $41, implying a slight discount to the market price.

Summary of Pfizer’s Phase 3 Drug Pipeline

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Estimated value ~ $50 billion

Estimated probability-adjusted revenue for 2024 ~ $9.1 billion

Breakup of probability-adjusted revenue for 2024 by therapeutic area:

  • Biosimilars ~ $5 billion
  • Oncology ~ $1.7 billion
  • Rare Diseases ~ $1 billion
  • Cardiovascular / Metabolic ~ $550 million
  • Neurocience ~ $425 million
  • Vaccines ~ $280 million

Top Drugs In Phase 3 Pipeline

The top drugs in Pfizer’s phase 3 pipeline include biosimilars for Rituxan, Herceptin, Avastin and Humira, oncology drugs Talazoparib and Dacomitinib, and type-2 diabetes drug Ertugliflozin which received approval just this week. Together, these drugs are expected to offset the decline in legacy drugs. The image below is a snapshot of our interactive breakdown of Pfizer’s phase 3 drug pipeline.

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