PepsiCo stock (NASDAQ: PEP) is up 2% in just the last one week, outperforming the S&P 500 which was flat. If you look at the change over the last ten days and one month, the stock has returned 3.7% and 2%, thus having outperformed the market on both occasions. PEP stock was up in the last week following an upgrade in its full year outlook. In its recently released Q3 2021 report, the company’s organic sales grew 9% during the quarter, faster than the growth achieved in the first six months of the year. PepsiCo saw high volume growth in most of its international markets while the U.S. snack food vertical got a lift from higher prices. What got the markets enthused was that this was the second straight upgrade to the company’s 2021 forecast. Organic sales are now expected to grow at 8% in 2021. To put things in perspective, the company started the year predicting 5% growth which was boosted to 6% in July 2021. The earnings outlook also got a hike with earnings expected to jump 11% overall.
Now, is PEP stock set to rise further or could we expect some correction? We believe that there is a 63% chance of a rise in PEP stock over the next month (21 trading days) based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years. See our analysis on PEP Stock Chance of Rise. For additional details about PEP historical returns and comparison to peers, see PepsiCo (PEP) Stock Return.
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Twenty-One Day: PEP 1.8%, vs. S&P500 –2%; Outperformed market
(39% likelihood event; 63% probability of rise over next 21 days)
- PEP stock increased 1.8% the last twenty-one trading days (one month), compared to a broader market (S&P500) drop of 2%
- A change of 1.8% or more over twenty-one trading days is a 39% likelihood event, which has occurred 983 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
- Of these 983 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next twenty-one trading days on 622 occasions
- This points to a 63% probability for the stock rising over the next twenty-one trading days
Ten Day: PEP 3.7%, vs. S&P500 0.2%; Outperformed market
(8% likelihood event; 66% probability of rise over next 10 days)
- PEP stock increased 3.7% over the last ten trading days (two weeks), compared to broader market (S&P500) rise of 0.2%
- A change of 3.7% or more over ten trading days is an 8% likelihood event, which has occurred 189 times out of 2516 in the last 10 years
- Of these 189 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next ten trading days on 125 occasions
- This points to a 66% probability for the stock rising over the next ten trading days
Five Day: PEP 2%, vs. S&P500 0.06%; Outperformed market
(16% likelihood event; 53% probability of rise over next five days)
- PEP stock increased 2% over a five-day trading period ending 10/13/2021, compared to the broader market (S&P500) marginal rise of of 0.06%
- A change of 2% or more over five trading days (one week) is a 16% likelihood event, which has occurred 391 times out of 2516 in the last ten years
- Of these 391 instances, the stock has seen a positive movement over the next five trading days on 208 occasions
- This points to a 53% probability for the stock rising over the next five trading days
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