How Important Is Frito-Lay For PepsiCo’s Growth?

+6.13%
Upside
175
Market
186
Trefis
PEP: PepsiCo logo
PEP
PepsiCo

Frito-Lay North America (FLNA) has maintained its position as the fastest growing segment for PepsiCo (NASDAQ: PEP) over recent years. PepsiCo Revenues (shows PepsiCo’s key revenue components) have increased from $62.8 billion in 2016 to $64.7 in 2018, growing at a CAGR of 1.5%. During the same period, FLNA saw its revenues increase from $15.5 billion to $16.3 billion, at a CAGR of 2.5%.

A] Division Overview

1) What is on offer?

  • FLNA makes, markets, distributes, and sells branded snack foods, which include branded dips, Cheetos cheese-flavored snacks, Doritos tortilla chips, Fritos corn chips, Lay’s potato chips, Ruffles potato chips, and Tostitos tortilla chips.
  • In addition, FLNA’s joint venture with Strauss Group makes, markets, distributes, and sells Sabra refrigerated dips and spreads.
Relevant Articles
  1. What’s Next For Pepsi Stock After A Mixed Q4 And 6% Fall Last Year?
  2. After A 25% Fall In 2023 Is Campbell A Better Pick Than PepsiCo Stock?
  3. What’s Next For PepsiCo Stock After A Q3 Beat?
  4. What To Expect From PepsiCo’s Q3?
  5. Which Is A Better Pick – PepsiCo Stock Or Amgen?
  6. Is PepsiCo Stock A Better Pick Over Cisco?

2) Who is paying?

  • FLNA’s branded products are sold to independent distributors and retailers.
  • Frito-Lay targets people across demographic sections through its products.
  • The products are positioned as a quick fix solution for hunger and are thus normally included in the category of fast foods.

3) Available Alternatives?

  • The segment faces intense competition from other snacks offerings from Procter & Gamble, Kraft Foods, Kellogg’s Company, and General Mills.

You can view the Trefis interactive dashboard – Frito-Lay North America: PepsiCo’s Primary Growth Driver – and alter the assumptions to arrive at your own estimate for the segment’s and company’s revenues and profitability. In addition, here is more Consumer Staples data.

B] Frito-Lay: Revenue Trend and Revenue Share

  • FLNA has been able to add $0.8 billion to its revenues over the last 2 years, at a CAGR of 2.5%.
  • Revenue growth has been driven by continuous innovation, new products, effective pricing strategies and volume growth.
  • As per the latest PepsiCo Earnings, FLNA revenues increased by 4.5% (y-o-y) in Q2 2019.
  • The segment is expected to grow at a healthy rate to add about $1.3 billion in revenues over the next two years, driven by growth in variety packs and its trademark Doritos.
  • Frito-Lay contributes about a quarter of PepsiCo’s revenues, with its share continuously rising.
  • We expect FLNA to continue to grow at a rate faster than PepsiCo as a whole, taking the segment contribution to 25.6% in 2020, from the current 25.3%.

C] Innovation and Strategies

  • Over the recent years, Frito-Lay has been successfully able to expand its reach to cater to different categories of consumers.
  • Frito-Lay was traditionally a dominant player only in the mid-tier snack segment. It did not have a significant presence in the premium or the bottom end of the snacks market.
  • However, Frito-Lay made its premium products available in high-end stores (such as Citarella) and the deli sections of grocery chains in order to create the right perception of these products.
  • In the bottom end of the segment, Frito-Lay has Cracker Jack as a brand offering high value for money. Similarly, Taqueros was made available in dollar stores and other retail outlets that typically attract value-seeking consumers.
  • Additionally, conscious of a consumer shift toward health snacks, the segment has come up with offerings such as Stacy’s Pita Chips and Sabra, which offers packaged Mediterranean dips such as hummus.

D] Most Profitable Segment

  • Frito-Lay is the most profitable division of PepsiCo, with its operating profit margin being almost 2x PepsiCo’s total operating margin.
  • We expect the segment to improve its margins from the current level of 30.6% to 31.8% by the end of 2020.
  • Improved profitability is expected to be driven by healthy revenue growth along with productivity savings.
  • The recently announced 2019 Productivity Plan, under which PepsiCo will leverage new technology and business models to further simplify, harmonize, and automate processes, and in addition optimize its manufacturing and supply chain footprint, is likely to provide a further boost to the profitability of its already high-margin Frito-Lay segment.

E] Conclusion

Trefis estimates PepsiCo to add close to $4 billion in revenues over the next two years, out of which $1.3 billion (over 31%) is expected to come from Frito-Lay. As per PepsiCo Valuation (shows valuation analysis) by Trefis, we have a price estimate of $128 per share for PEP’s stock. Thus, the primary factor for the company to report a healthy revenue growth rate, improved profitability, enhanced shareholder returns, and elevated stock price, is a solid and sustained performance in the Frito-Lay division.

 

What’s behind Trefis? See How it’s Powering New Collaboration and What-Ifs

For CFOs and Finance Teams | Product, R&D, and Marketing Teams

All Trefis Data

Like our charts? Explore example interactive dashboards and create your own.