Will Pacific Biosciences Stock Rebound After A Large 35% Fall In A Month?

The stock price of Pacific Biosciences of California (PACB), a biotechnology company that develops gene sequencing systems, has seen a large fall of 38% over the last twenty-one trading days, while it is down 28% over the last week. The recent fall can be attributed to the company’s preliminary Q4 results, which came in marginally below the street expectations. The company’s revenue is expected to be $36.0 million in Q4, vs. $36.6 million per consensus estimate. The company reported that it placed 48 Sequel (II/IIe) systems in Q4, 37% more than what it placed in the prior year quarter. The steep fall triggered by downbeat results appears to be overdone. Although only a few analysts cover PACB stock, the average of their forecasts stands at $40, which represents a large 3.6x upside potential from its current levels of $11.  PACB stock has remained weak over the last year with a decline of over 70%, compared to a rise of 20% for the broader S&P500 index. Our dashboard – Loss Streak for Pacific Biosciences of California Stock – provides gains and losing streaks for PACB stock, along with comparison to the S&P500 index. 

But what about the near term,  given that PACB stock has seen a large 38% fall over the last month or so, will it continue its downward trajectory, or is a rise imminent? Going by historical performance, there is a strong chance of a rise in PACB stock over the next month. Out of 23 instances in the last ten years that PACB stock saw a twenty-one day fall of 38% or more, 22 of them resulted in PACB stock rising over the subsequent one-month period (twenty-one trading days). This historical pattern reflects 22 out of 23, or about a 96% chance of a rise in PACB stock over the coming month. See our analysis on Pacific Biosciences of` California Stock Chance of Rise for more details.

While PACB stock may see higher levels over the next month, it is helpful to see how its peers stack up. Check out Pacific Biosciences of California Stock Comparison With Peers to see how PACB stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You can find more such useful comparisons on Peer Comparisons.

Calculation of ‘Event Probability‘ and ‘Chance of Rise‘ using last ten years data

• After moving -28% or more over a five-day period, the stock rose in the next five days on 36% of the occasions.
• After moving -43% or more over a ten-day period, the stock rose in the next ten days on 80% of the occasions
• After moving -38% or more over a twenty-one-day period, the stock rose in the next twenty-one days on 96% of the occasions.

This pattern suggests that there is a higher chance of a rise in PACB stock over the next ten days and one month period, but it may see lower levels over the next five days.

Pacific Biosciences of California (PACB) Stock Return (Recent) Comparison With Peers

• Five-Day Return: QGEN highest at 11.0%; PACB lowest at -27.9%
• Ten-Day Return: ILMN highest at 3.7%; PACB lowest at -42.8%
• Twenty-One Day Return: NSTG highest at 12.6%; PACB lowest at -37.9%

While PACB stock may see higher levels, the Covid-19 crisis has created many pricing discontinuities which can offer attractive trading opportunities. For example, you’ll be surprised how counter-intuitive the stock valuation is for Eli Lilly vs. Qorvo

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Here’s a high-quality portfolio that’s beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 1/17/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016