Occidental Petroleum Corporation’s stock (NYSE: OXY) is a company engaged in hydrocarbon exploration as well as petrochemical manufacturing. The company’s stock has increased by almost 13% over the last five trading days (one week) and currently stands at around $66. In comparison, the broader S&P500 index grew only 4% over the same period. The company’s stock rallied ahead of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting scheduled today, October 5. A similar 11% growth was also seen in oil and gas peers Chevron’s Stock (NYSE: CVX) and Exxon Mobil’s stock (NYSE: XOM) in the last five days. OPEC+ participants are expected to discuss production cuts at the meeting to offset falling prices. The last OPEC+ meeting (this summer) resulted in only a slight reduction of production, by 100,000 barrels per day. On the contrary, cuts in the range of 500,000 to 1.5 million barrels per day could be seen in the upcoming meeting. Although these cuts are only 1% of global oil demand, small changes in supply and demand are capable of moving oil prices significantly. It should be noted that global oil demand was 99.4 million barrels per day in August 2022.
Oil prices have fallen from over $120 per barrel in June to below $85 recently on fears of a global economic recession. The Biden administration has also contributed to recent oil price declines by releasing 1 million barrels per day from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR). In November, the United States is expected to cease releasing barrels from the SPR, so oil prices could remain somewhat stable for the rest of the year.
Is OXY stock poised to decline in the short term or are gains looking more likely? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a 53% chance of a rise in OXY stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis of OXY’s Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.
Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of rising’ using last ten years’ data
 Returns of 13% or higher over a five-day period on 72 occasions out of 2515 (3%); Stock rose in the next five days in 36 of these 72 instances (50%)
 Returns of 2.9% or higher over a ten-day period on 688 occasions out of 2515 (27%); Stock rose in the next ten days in 366 of these 688 instances (53%)
 Returns of -3.8% or lower over a twenty-one-day period on 762 occasions out of 2515 (30%); Stock rose in the next twenty-one days in 402 of these 762 instances (53%)
It is helpful to see how its peers stack up. OXY Peers shows how OXY stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.
|S&P 500 Return||6%||-20%||69%|
|Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio||8%||-21%||214%|
 Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 10/5/2022
 Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016
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