OWL Stock Falls -23% With A 9-day Losing Spree On Zacks Downgrade
Blue Owl Capital (OWL) – a provider of permanent capital solutions for middle market companies – hit a 9-day losing streak, with cumulative losses over this period amounting to -23%. The company’s market cap has crashed by about $2.4 Bil over the last 9 days and currently stands at $8.1 Bil.
The stock has YTD (year-to-date) return of 18.9% compared to 1.1% for S&P 500. This calls for a re-evaluation of the stock’s valuation to find out whether this is an opportunity or a trap.
What Triggered The Slide?
[1] Zacks Downgrade to Strong Sell
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- Rating Cut From ‘Hold’ to ‘Strong Sell’
- Multiple Price Target Reductions From Other Analysts
- Impact: Accelerated Selling Pressure, Stock Hit New 52-Week Low
[2] Sustained Institutional Selling
- Investment Manager Sold $10.1 Million in Shares
- Falling Trend Channel and Support Breakdown
- Impact: Increased Downward Momentum, Negative Investor Sentiment
Opportunity or Trap?
Below is our take on valuation.
There is not much to fear in OWL stock given its overall Strong operating performance and financial condition. Hence, despite its Moderate valuation, this makes the stock look Risky (For details, see Buy or Sell OWL).
But here is the real interesting point.
You are reading about this -23% move after it happened. The market has already priced in the news. To avoid the next loser before the headlines, you need predictive signals, not notifications. Our High Quality Portfolio has a risk model designed to reduce exposure to losers.
Returns vs S&P 500
The following table summarizes the return for OWL stock vs. the S&P 500 index over different periods, including the current streak:
| Return Period | OWL | S&P 500 |
|---|---|---|
| 1D | -9.8% | -0.8% |
| 9D (Current Streak) | -23.2% | 0.6% |
| 1M (21D) | -20.9% | 0.9% |
| 3M (63D) | -22.1% | 1.1% |
| YTD 2026 | -18.9% | 1.1% |
| 2025 | -32.8% | 16.4% |
| 2024 | 61.8% | 23.3% |
| 2023 | 47.4% | 24.2% |
Gains and Losses Streaks: S&P 500 Constituents
There are currently 79 S&P constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive gains and 57 constituents with 3 days or more of consecutive losses.
| Consecutive Days | # of Gainers | # of Losers |
|---|---|---|
| 3D | 29 | 23 |
| 4D | 31 | 9 |
| 5D | 15 | 7 |
| 6D | 1 | 11 |
| 7D or more | 3 | 7 |
| Total >=3 D | 79 | 57 |
Key Financials for Blue Owl Capital (OWL)
Last 2 Fiscal Years:
| Metric | FY2023 | FY2024 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $1.7 Bil | $2.3 Bil |
| Operating Income | $317.8 Mil | $606.8 Mil |
| Net Income | $54.3 Mil | $109.6 Mil |
Last 2 Fiscal Quarters:
| Metric | 2025 FQ2 | 2025 FQ3 |
|---|---|---|
| Revenues | $703.1 Mil | $728.0 Mil |
| Operating Income | $99.3 Mil | $112.7 Mil |
| Net Income | $17.4 Mil | $6.3 Mil |
The losing streak OWL stock is currently on doesn’t inspire much confidence among investors. In contrast, Trefis High Quality (HQ) Portfolio, with a collection of 30 stocks, has a track record of comfortably outperforming its benchmark that includes all 3 — the S&P 500, S&P mid-cap, and Russell 2000 indices. Why is that? As a group, HQ Portfolio stocks provided better returns with less risk versus the benchmark index; less of a roller-coaster ride, as evident in HQ Portfolio performance metrics.