NY Times Stock Down 15% In A Month, What’s Next?

NYT: New York Times logo
New York Times

New York Times stock (NYSE: NYT), a diversified media company that includes newspapers, internet businesses, television, and radio stations, has declined by 15% over the last twenty-one trading days (one month) and currently stands at around $40. It should be noted that the broader S&P500 returned a 7% fall over the last month. NYT’s shares have fallen as investors’ confidence in the company’s organic digital growth is waning. As of now, the media company continues to grow its subscriber base of digital-only subscribers, but this growth is largely a result of discounted offers. In response to escalating costs and a fear of losing subscribers, the company has also not been able to raise its subscription prices. That said, the competitive market remains fierce. All this explains why NYT acquired The Athletic for $550 million – its largest acquisition to date. The Times also bought Wordle, which was a much smaller deal, yet more evidence that the company is seeking out external growth sources.

Note that subscription revenue, which made up 66% of The Times’ revenue in fiscal 2021, is expected to grow only 11-15% y-o-y. It includes 2-4 points of growth from The Athletic, which deal will close in the first quarter of fiscal 2022. However, the company’s operating costs are anticipated to grow at an expected rate of 18 to 22% y-o-y – faster than the revenue growth, thanks to its M&A strategy.

Now, is NYT stock poised to decline in the short term or are gains looking more likely? Based on our machine learning analysis of trends in the stock price over the last ten years, there is a 74% chance of a rise in NYT stock over the next month (twenty-one trading days). See our analysis on NYT’s Stock Chance Of Rise for more details.

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Calculation of ‘Event Probability’ and ‘Chance of rising’ using last ten years’ data

[1] Returns of -1.4% or lower over five-day period on 312 occasions out of 2517 (12%); Stock rose in the next five days in 176 of these 312 instances (56%)

[2] Returns of -9.1% or lower over ten-day period on 41 occasions out of 2517 (2%); Stock rose in the next ten days in 16 of these 41 instances (39%)

[3] Returns of -15% or lower over twenty-one-day period on 69 occasions out of 2515 (3%); Stock rose in the next twenty-one days in 51 of these 69 instances (74%)

It is helpful to see how its peers stack up. NYT Peers shows how New York Times’ stock compares against peers on metrics that matter. You will find other useful comparisons for companies across industries at Peer Comparisons.

What if you’re looking for a more balanced portfolio instead? Our high-quality portfolio and multi-strategy portfolio have beaten the market consistently since the end of 2016.

Returns Apr 2022
MTD [1]
YTD [1]
Total [2]
 NYT Return -13% -17% 200%
 S&P 500 Return -8% -12% 87%
 Trefis Multi-Strategy Portfolio -7% -14% 236%

[1] Month-to-date and year-to-date as of 4/29/2022
[2] Cumulative total returns since the end of 2016

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